Sorry it has taken this long for an update, and tomorrow will see a new set of rankings, but better late than never . . .

What you will see is four regions, with Boys 1A and 2A, and Girls 1A and 2A in each section for that region. The rules in place for the FHSAA this year are different than last year. This year, the District winners are NOT guaranteed a Top 4 seed in a region. There will be 8 teams in each region and each District winner is only guaranteed a slot in the 8 teams. If a District winner is 8th-ranked in the Top 8, that is where they will be placed. What doesn’t change for that is that if they are matched up with a non-district winner in Round One, they will get the home game. We’ll point that out in the spreadsheet where it appears. But also note that the FHSAA does have final say over a location for a game, so they do have the power to move a location if they deem it in the best interest of the matchup. And example might be if the distance between the schools is so big that a neutral site makes sense, but they will only do this in unusual circumstances, so assume the home game will be as slotted.

After the first round, re-seeding occurs and the top team in the matchup gets the home game. Finally, in the Final Four, we will get the #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 matchup.

The FHSAA publishes the rankings on their website under the Rankings (B) and Rankings (G) tabs, and those can be reconfigured and sorted. That is how we do these brackets.

For the purpose of these ‘prediction brackets’, we assume the highest ranked team in each District is the winner of the District. It’s just a starting point, so don’t fret for now. We found last year that Won/loss record tended to work early and as the season went on, Strength of Schedule played more and more of a factor. It’s fair to say that the MaxPreps data is most of the calculation, but please note that MaxPreps is NOT a full national database, since many ‘power’ programs do not bother with it. So you will not see a St. Thomas/Boys’ Latin score impact the ranking of St. Thomas much, if at all.

Which means, to those of you who have not heard FLN talk about this before . . . Do Not Take MaxPreps National Rankings seriously if you are broadcasting or reporting on a game. We are WAY ahead of other states in scheduling games and some states have not played a game yet, including many of the Northeast power programs. And many DO NOT PARTICIPATE anyhow. Just use the MaxPreps stats for Florida comparisons ONLY.

If you are among the First Four Out, you can check where you are compared to the last team in. So, when you look at Region 1, Girls 2A, you will see a team at #8 with a ranking of 30, while another team, the first team out, is at 32. That gives you an idea of how close you are to making the Bracket.

To read the First Four Out, the first row of numbers are where they stand in the FHSAA ranking, while the next four numbers are where Laxnumbers has them. Obviously, there are some real differences between the two, and that gets to how much more Laxnumbers uses Strength of Schedule early in the process.

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Region 1 –

Projected Regional rankings if the current rankings are assumed to produce the District champs and 4 At-Large Bids

FHSAA Rankings for 03/13/23
Region 1								Comparison in Class		Comparison in Class
Boys 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #		FHSAA	LaxNumb		FHSAA	LaxNumb
#1	Bolles	4		#8	Paxon	4		2	2		55	64
#2	Oak Hall	3		#7	South Walton	2		8	12		42	41
#3	Pensacola Catholic	1		#6	Trinity Catholic	3		16	25		39	50
#4	Episcopal School	4		#5	Providence	4		21	26		37	30
First Four Out:  West Florida (1), Tocoi Creek (3), Menendez (3), Maclay (2)	58/59/60/64				56/53/36/59
Boys 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Lake Mary	4		#8	Bartram Trail	2		1	1		20	7
#2	Ponte Vedra	2		#7	Leon	1		2	2		18	30
#3	Creekside	2		#6	Niceville	1		10	20		17	26
#4	St Augustine	3		#5	Lake Brantley	4		14	36		15	18
First Four Out:  Nease (2), Gulf Breeze (1), Forest (3), Oviedo (4)	23/24/26/29				9/35/21/19
Girls 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Ponte Vedra	3		#8	Tocoi Creek	3		3	3		31	35
#2	St Augustine	3		#7	Wolfson	2		7	6		28	38
#3	Episcopal	2		#6	Oak Hall	4		9	4		22	13
#4	Bolles	2		#5	Pensacola Catholic	1		12	20		18	11
First Four Out:  Santa Fe (4), Fleming Island (3), Seacoast Collegiate (1), South Walton (1)	37/38/42/50				61/32/58/34
Girls 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Bartram Trail	3		#8	Lake Mary	4		2	1		29	7
#2	Lake Brantley	4		#7	Gulf Breeze	1		6	11		28	22
#3	Oviedo	4		#6	Fletcher	2		11	10		27	25
#4	Creekside	3		#5	Niceville	1		25	17		26	31
First Four Out:   Apopka (4), Atlantic Coast (2), Buchholz (3), Nease (2)	33/34/35/43				41/80/28/45

When you look at Region 1, you’ll see some interesting differences.

The biggest disagreement on 1A Boys is Menendez (60 vs 36). Third team out, but has only to rise 6 spots to edge past Paxon. In 2A Boys, Creekside and Bartram Trail are head scratchers, and how Nease is not in the bracket is a serious mistake. There’s still a lot of fluidity to Girls 1A, as all 12 teams, including first 4 out, are capable of making the bracket. There’s also a huge difference in the Lake Mary Girls, #8 seed versus #7 IN THE STATE in 2A according to Laxnumbers.

*****

Region 2

Projected Regional rankings if the current rankings are assumed to produce the District champs and 4 At-Large Bids

FHSAA Rankings for 03/13/23
Region 2								Comparison in Class		Comparison in Class
Boys 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #		FHSAA	LaxNumb		FHSAA	LaxNumb
#1	Lake Highland	5		#8	Lake Wales	6		3	4		36	46
#2	Benjamin	8		#7	West Shore	7		4	3		26	31
#3	Holy Trinity	7		#6	Pine School	8		6	8		20	35
#4	St. Edward’s	8		#5	Montverde	5		9	7		18	14
First Four Out: Cocoa Beach (7), Trinity Prep (5), Bishop Moore (5), Jensen Beach (8)	31/32/34/44				44/39/24/33
Boys 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Winter Park	6		#8	Timber Creek	6		4	3		39	27
#2	Lake Howell	6		#7	Lake Nona	7		7	22		28	33
#3	Viera	8		#6	Windermere	5		8	13		21	16
#4	West Orange	5		#5	Vero Beach	8		16	31		19	14
First Four Out:   Melbourne (8), Dr. Phillips (7), Olympia (7), Lake Minneola (5)	40/44/53/59				47/66/58/48
Girls 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Lake Highland	7		#8	Lake Wales	6		2	2		40	40
#2	First Academy	7		#7	Horizon	6		21	17		35	44
#3	Edgewood	8		#6	Satellite	8		23	22		27	36
#4	Berkeley Prep	5		#5	Bishop Moore	7		24	25		26	5
First Four Out:  Cypress Creek (5), River Ridge (5), Tampa Catholic (5), Holy Trinity (8)	43/48/53/55				48/53/52/62
Girls 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Vero Beach	8		#8	Sebastian River	8		1	6		21	42
#2	Hagerty	5		#7	West Orange	6		3	2		20	27
#3	Viera	8		#6	Lake Minneola	6		7	9		17	19
#4	Windermere	6		#5	Celebration	7		12	23		16	18
First Four Out:   Boone (5), Lake Howell (5), Timber Creek (5), Edgewater (5)	24/36/38/39				38/20/40/53

In Region 2, there’s less differences to point out.

In 1A Boys, the fact that Lake Wales is projected to win a District as an 8-seed means right now we are looking at 1-7 only. FHSAA rankings have the first 3 teams out as very closely bunched, while Bishop Moore (3rd team out) would be at the 6th seed with Laxnumbers.

I frankly can’t figure out how Lake Howell is the #2 seed right now in Boys 2A. They are having a nice season, but they are not at #7 in the state in 2A. There is general agreement on the first four out, so right now it’s looking like jockeying for seeding more than who makes the bracket. Melbourne could jump Timber Creek, but TC is much higher ranked by Laxnumbers. As of now, Lake Nona is a 7-seed as a district winner.

In Girls 1A, Bishop Moore is the wild card, as there’s a huge difference in ranking (26 vs 5). It’s only about seeding, since the FHSAA has a 5-seed for them right now, while Laxnumbers would have them at #2.

In Girls 2A, it looks like Lake Howell and Sebastian River are fighting for the last slot, pending other games.

*****

Region 3

Projected Regional rankings if the current rankings are assumed to produce the District champs and 4 At-Large Bids

FHSAA Rankings for 3/13/23
Region 3								Comparison in Class		Comparison in Class
Boys 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #		FHSAA	LaxNumb		FHSAA	LaxNumb
#1	Community School	12		#8	Barron Collier	12		5	5		30	38
#2	Jesuit	9		#7	Osceola	10		10	6		25	43
#3	Cardinal Mooney	11		#6	Calv Christian Clear	10		11	10		23	29
#4	Bishop Verot	12		#5	St. Stephen’s	11		12	19		13	9
First Four Out: Canterbury (12), Northeast (10), Tampa Prep (9), Estero (12)		33/35/45/47		21/58/66/61
Boys 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Gulf Coast	12		#8	Riverdale	12		9	15		34	76
#2	Steinbrenner	10		#7	Alonso	11		11	8		32	28
#3	Mitchell	10		#6	Newsome	9		12	11		27	23
#4	Lakeland	9		#5	Plant	9		13	37		25	6
First Four Out:  Riverview (12), Wiregrass Ranch (10), Fort Myers (12), Palm Harbor (11)		35/38/42/45		41/42/71/49
Girls 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	St. Stephen’s	10		#8	Lely	12		6	8		36	68
#2	Barron Collier	12		#7	Calv Christ Clear	9		13	18		30	37
#3	Acad Holy Names	9		#6	Bishop Verot	11		15	27		29	50
#4	St Petersburg Cath	10		#5	Community School	12		17	33		20	14
First Four Out:  Northeast (9), Cardinal Mooney (10), Cape Coral (11), Canterbury (11)		38/41/44/47		66/56/89/80
Girls 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Steinbrenner	9		#8	Manatee	11		5	4		23	15
#2	Newsome	10		#7	Mitchell	9		8	3		22	37
#3	Gulf Coast	12		#6	Riverview	11		10	14		19	13
#4	Plant	10		#5	Lakewood Ranch	11		13	8		18	35
First Four Out:   Sickles (10), Palm Harbor (10), Sunlake (9), Bloomingdale (10)		30/31/41/47		30/33/44/49

In Region 3, we have some interesting takes by both ranking approaches.

First thing that jumps out is that Community School holds the #1 seed over Jesuit in the FHSAA (5 vs 10), while even Laxnumbers has it 5 vs 6. Let’s see if that still holds after this past week’s results. Canterbury is the biggest difference, as FHSAA has them as first team out, while LN would have them as the #6 seed. A few more wins should allow them to catch Barron Collier at the least, but right now they do have work to do to get in.

I find Boys 2A almost incomprehensible, with Plant as the #5 seed in FHSAA. 25th in 2A in the state? Serious issue with that. LN has them as the 1st seed. Since Plant was off last week, any movement makes you wonder about methodology. Ft. Myers should not be among the first four out. I fully expect Riverview to hop over Riverdale.

In Girls 1A, Lely has an enormous difference of opinion; but it might not matter since the first four out are all lowly ranked by LN. We’ll see how this week plays out for Northeast and Cardinal Mooney, the closest trailers.

Girls 2A has not seen the end of jockeying, as many of the schools that are currently out having a shot to get in. Riverview and Manatee look better to LN than Mitchell and Lakewood.

*****

Region 4

Projected Regional rankings if the current rankings are assumed to produce the District champs and 4 At-Large Bids

Region 4								Comparison in Class		Comparison in Class
Boys 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #		FHSAA	LaxNumb		FHSAA	LaxNumb
#1	Saint Andrew’s	14		#8	Gulliver Prep	16		1	1		28	20
#2	SJP II	13		#7	Amer Heritage-Plantation	14		7	11		22	13
#3	Amer Heritage-Delray	13		#6	King’s Academy	13		14	28		19	18
#4	Belen Jesuit	15		#5	NSU University	15		15	17		17	27
First Four Out: Calv Christ-Ft Laud (14), Oxbridge (13), Pine Crest (14), Cardinal Newman (13)		24/27/29/38		32/15/16/37
Boys 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Jupiter	13		#8	Boca Raton	14		3	5		37	25
#2	Western	16		#7	Spanish River	14		5	10		33	44
#3	St. Thomas	15		#6	Coral Reef	16		6	4		31	52
#4	Columbus	16		#5	Palmetto	16		22	12		30	24
First Four Out:    Martin County (13), West Boca (15), Stoneman (15), Wellington (14)		47/54/57/59		17/59/32/43
Girls 1A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Amer Heritage-Delray	15		#8	Key West	16		1	1		16	26
#2	Amer Heritage-Plant	15		#7	Cardinal Gibbons	15		4	10		14	39
#3	South Fork	13		#6	Jensen Beach	13		5	7		11	12
#4	Saint Andrew’s	14		#5	Pine Crest	15		8	9		10	15
First Four Out:  SJP II (14), Benjamin (13), NSU University (15), St. Edward’s (13)		19/25/32/33		21/16/42/23
Girls 2A	Seeded District Winners	District #			4 At-Large Bids	District #
#1	Boca Raton	14		#8	Lourdes Academy	16		4	12		45	48
#2	Jupiter	13		#7	Wellington	13		9	16		44	36
#3	Stoneman	14		#6	Martin County	13		14	21		37	24
#4	St. Thomas	15		#5	Palmetto	16		15	5		32	39
First Four Out:   Coral Glades (15), Dwyer (13), Spanish River (14), Seminole Ridge (13)		48/56/59/62		66/47/58/34

Region 4 is quite up in the air. First, Gulliver is currently slotted as a District-winning #8 seed, so assume District 16 is likely a one-bid district.

Neither Oxbridge nor Pine Crest have made the bracket currently, and they certainly can’t count on the FHSAA rankings to move in their favor easily without wins. Pine Crest has a few last week, so tomorrow’s update should be more favorable. I find LN’s ranking of AH-Plantation at 13 kind of bizarre given how few games they’ve played; that also will be monitored this week.

In Boys 2A, Martin County, first team out, has a huge differential (47 vs 17) while Stoneman is likely in with LN, but not FHSAA. Columbus also looks underrated by FHSAA, but should have no problem making the bracket. District foes Spanish River and Boca Raton are currently 7/8 seeds, so they need to watch out the most. Very possible that it will be a one-bid district, but both certainly can qualify too.

In Girls 1A, Cardinal Gibbons has the biggest disagreement (14 vs 39), so their 7th seed isn’t a lock. One thing to note for them is that they are possibly AH-Delray’s semifinal opponent in that district. Key West will likely be an 8-seed District winner, but given that three of the four teams out (SJP, Benjamin and St Edward’s) are all regarded by LN, so there’s still a lot of mystery to come.

In Girls 2A, St. Thomas being behind Jupiter and Stoneman is not defensible right now. Let’s see how this week’s win over Lake Mary affects things. Fourth team out, Seminole Ridge, could spoil a lot of assumptions too, as LN has them much higher.