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Who’s In/Who’s Out? Week One of the FHSAA Power Rankings!

Okay, a few things to note. First, it’s only three weeks, and as we’ve all seen, mathematics gets better with more data, and there isn’t a lot of it yet, so don’t get upset at this first pass. Take this as the ‘spring training’ of power rankings and use it to familiarize yourself with the process.

What you will see is four regions, with Boys 1A and 2A, and Girls 1A and 2A in each section for that region. The rules in place for the FHSAA this year are different than last year. This year, the District winners are NOT guaranteed a Top 4 seed in a region. There will be 8 teams in each region and each District winner is only guaranteed a slot in the 8 teams. If a District winner is 8th-ranked in the Top 8, that is where they will be placed. What doesn’t change for that is that if they are matched up with a non-district winner in Round One, they will get the home game. We’ll point that out in the spreadsheet where it appears. But also note that the FHSAA does have final say over a location for a game, so they do have the power to move a location if they deem it in the best interest of the matchup. And example might be if the distance between the schools is so big that a neutral site makes sense, but they will only do this in unusual circumstances, so assume the home game will be as slotted.

After the first round, re-seeding occurs and the top team in the matchup gets the home game. Finally, in the Final Four, we will get the #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 matchup.

The FHSAA publishes the rankings on their website under the Rankings (B) and Rankings (G) tabs, and those can be reconfigured and sorted. That is how we do these brackets.

For the purpose of these ‘prediction brackets’, we assume the highest ranked team in each District is the winner of the District. It’s just a starting point, so don’t fret for now. We found last year that Won/loss record tended to work early and as the season went on, Strength of Schedule played more and more of a factor. It’s fair to say that the MaxPreps data is most of the calculation, but please note that MaxPreps is NOT a full national database, since many ‘power’ programs do not bother with it. So you will not see a St. Thomas/Boys’ Latin score impact the ranking of St. Thomas much, if at all.

Which means, to those of you who have not heard FLN talk about this before . . . Do Not Take MaxPreps National Rankings seriously if you are broadcasting or reporting on a game. We are WAY ahead of other states in scheduling games and some states have not played a game yet, including many of the Northeast power programs. And many DO NOT PARTICIPATE anyhow. Just use the MaxPreps stats for Florida comparisons ONLY.

Okay, off the soapbox. But any commentator using the national rankings will be disdained . . . okay, soapbox off and I mean it! As a check on the early MaxPreps math, I also included an outside ranking approach by Laxnumbers.com.

If you are among the First Four Out, you can check where you are compared to the last team in. So, when you look at Region 1, Girls 2A, you will see Apopka at #8 with a ranking of 30, while Gulf Breeze, the first team out, is at 32. That gives you an idea of how close you are to making the Bracket.

To read the First Four Out, the first row of numbers are where they stand in the FHSAA ranking, while the next four numbers are where Laxnumbers has them. Obviously, there are some real differences between the two, and that gets to how much more Laxnumbers uses Strength of Schedule early in the process.

Here’s Region One:

Region 1Comparison in ClassComparison in Class
Boys 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #FHSAALaxNumbFHSAALaxNumb
#1Bolles4#8South Walton2235041
#2Oak Hall3#7West Florida14104851
#3Pensacola Catholic1#6Trinity Catholic318334047
#4Episcopal School4#5Providence420263331
First Four Out: Paxon School (4), Menendez(3), Father Lopez (3), Pensacola (1)53/59/62/6770/49/79/68
Boys 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Lake Mary4#8Leon1112233
#2Ponte Vedra2#7Oviedo4221616
#3Forest3#6St Augustine36191541
#4Creekside2#5Niceville110231326
First Four Out:   Lake Brantley (4), Gulf Breeze (1), Nease (2), Bartram Trail (2)23/25/27/2917/44/8/9
Girls 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Ponte Vedra3#8Santa Fe4333858
#2St Augustine3#7Fleming Island3583334
#3Episcopal School2#6Oak Hall4943116
#4Bolles2#5Pensacola Catholic112222115
First Four Out: Wolfson (2), Tocoi Creek (3), Seacoast Collegiate (1), Gainesville (4)41/42/43/5837/33/50/55
Girls 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Bartram Trail3#8Apopka4213037
#2Oviedo4#7Creekside3592914
#3Lake Brantley4#6Lake Mary41213267
#4Niceville1#5Fletcher215292522
First Four Out:  Gulf Breeze (1), Atlantic Coast (2), Buchholz (3), Nease (2)32/33/37/4027/77/32/48

Obviously, the first round sets up as #1 vs #8, #2 vs #7, #3 vs #6 and #4 vs #5

In Boys 1A, South Walton wins District 2 but does not get the home game since Bolles is also a District winner. But in Girls 1A, Pensacola Catholic would get the home game since they are the District 1 winner versus a runner-up Bolles in District 2.

Now that you see how it works, here’s the other 3 Regions:

Region 2

Region 2Comparison in ClassComparison in Class
Boys 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #FHSAALaxNumbFHSAALaxNumb
#1Lake Highland5#8Lake Wales6323646
#2Benjamin8#7Pine School8542436
#3Holy Trinity7#6Cocoa Beach7692142
#4Montverde5#5St Edward’s68896
First Four Out: Bishop Moore (5), West Shore (7), Trinity Prep (5), Edgewood (7)28/34/37/4221/30/39/45
Boys 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Winter Park6#8Timber Creek6433121
#2Viera8#7Melbourne88112847
#3Lake Howell6#6West Orange59222627
#4Windermere5#5Lake Nona720132429
First Four Out:  Dr Phillips (7), Vero Beach (8), Celebration (7), Tohopekaliga (7)49/53/56/5758/20/62/80
Girls 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Lake Highland7#8Lake Wales6223742
#2First Academy7#7Horizon617193543
#3Bishop Moore7#6Satellite81953228
#4Edgewood8#5Berkeley Prep522172531
First Four Out: West Shore (8), Cypress Creek (5), Holy Trinity (8), River Ridge (5)50/51/52/5375/51/73/56
Girls 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Vero Beach8#8Celebration7133820
#2Windermere6#7Boone57212134
#3Hagerty5#6West Orange6951726
#4Viera8#5Sebastian River814101646
First Four Out:  Winter Park (5), Edgewater (5), Timber Creek (5), Lake Minneola (6)27/28/31/3423/50/33/49

Region 3Comparison in ClassComparison in Class
Boys 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #FHSAALaxNumbFHSAALaxNumb
#1Jesuit9#8Bishop Verot12752720
#2Cardinal Mooney11#7St Stephens Epis111072517
#3Community School12#6Northeast1013121955
#4Calvary Christian Clear10#5Osceola1015271740
First Four Out: Canterbury (12), Barron Collier (12), Northside Christian (10), Estero (12)30/31/35/4318/37/62/61
Boys 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Mitchell10#8Palm Harbor111173551
#2Plant9#7Fort Myers121263469
#3Steinbrenner10#6Newsome914122124
#4Lakeland9#5Gulf Coast1217361914
First Four Out:  Alonso (11), Riverview (12), Bartow (9), Riverdale (12)36/37/40/4225/35/50/72
Palm Harbor Univ11
Girls 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1St Stephens10#8Canterbury117112864
#2Barron Collier12#7Cape Coral1110102785
#3Academy of Holy Names9#6Community School1211322324
#4St Petersburg Catholic10#5Calvary Christian Clear913392040
First Four Out: Lely (12), Bishop Verot (11), Clearwater Central Catholic (9), Cardinal Mooney (10)29/30/44/4677/61/70/53
Girls 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Plant10#8Riverview113122315
#2Steinbrenner9#7Sickles10461928
#3Newsome9#6Mitchell91021841
#4Manatee10#5Gulf Coast1211161317
First Four Out:  Lakewood Ranch (11), Palm Harbor (10), Bloomingdale (10), Sunlake (9)24/35/36/4653/42/47/51

Region 4Comparison in ClassComparison in Class
Boys 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #FHSAALaxNumbFHSAALaxNumb
#1Saint Andrew’s14#8Gulliver Prep16113222
#2Saint John Paul II13#7King’s Academy1311132316
#3Belen Jesuit15#6Cardinal Newman1312142234
#4American Heritage-Delray13#5NSU-University1514251619
First Four Out: Pine Crest (14), Calvary Christian FtLaud (14), Oxbridge (13), Cardinal Gibbons (14)26/29/38/3911/29/15/23
Boys 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Jupiter13#8Columbus16344418
#2St Thomas15#7Boca Raton14554130
#3Western16#6Coral Reef167103355
#4Palmetto16#5Spanish River1418283040
First Four Out:  West Boca (15), Stoneman (15), Martin County (13), Wellington (14)46/54/55/6356/31/15/53
Girls 1ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1American Heritage-Delray14#8Key West16113023
#2American Heritage-Plant15#7Cardinal Gibbons15471835
#3South Fork13#6Jensen Beach13661514
#4Saint Andrew’s14#5Pine Crest151291413
First Four Out: Saint John Paul (14), Benjamin (15), King’s Academy (14), St Edward’s (13)24/26/34/3618/12/21/20
Girls 2ASeeded District WinnersDistrict #4 At-Large BidsDistrict #
#1Boca Raton14#8Coral Glades15684863
#2Jupiter13#7Lourdes Academy168114743
#3Palmetto16#6Wellington1320184431
#4St Thomas15#5Stoneman142243930
First Four Out:  West Broward (16), Martin County (13), Park Vista (14), Dwyer (13)49/50/54/5570/25/36/40

We’ll be on Varsity Sports Network next week with the next edition, so tune in!

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