I’m not sure how fast the FHSAA will release, but here’s a running tally of what I am thinking currently, with a number of games to play.

Region 3 is complete, so here is my thought:

To enlighten the readers, the Four district winners are given bids, but not necessarily #1 – #4, and they are not guaranteed a home game. The next four teams in the power rankings (a District winner might not be a Top 8 ranked team, like the Bishop Verot Girls below) are given at-large bids, and they are then ranked #1 – #8 for pairings. The higher ranked team has the home game in the first round, but if a District winner faces an at-large team as a LOWER seed, they do get the home game.

Boys 1A

#1 Community School (see analysis below) vs #8 Osceola

#2 Jesuit vs #7 Canterbury

#3 Cardinal Mooney vs #6 St. Stephen’s

#4 Calvary Christian Clearwater vs #5 Bishop Verot

This is an interesting test of how a district’s strength might factor into a final seeding. Coming into this playoff, we had Tampa Jesuit (#1 seed/6), Community School (#2 seed/8), Cardinal Mooney (#3 seed/10) and Bishop Verot (#4 seed/11). The other four were Calvary Christian Clearwater (#5/15), St. Stephen’s (#6/16), Canterbury (#7/22) and Osceola (#8/30), with Barron Collier at 31, Estero at 34, ODA at 42 and Northeast at 48 as the First Four Out.

Jesuit won their district easily, and there were no other district teams in that list of 12 above, while BV, Community, Canterbury, Barron Collier and Estero are all in District 12, making that significantly stronger as a district. Community ran through Barron Collier and Canterbury (finals) easily, while Bishop Verot lost in the semis to Canterbury. Jesuit cruised through two games by big margins.

It looks like a toss-up for #1 in the region, as they do not have a head-to-head result, and last year there was some late movement after District. For now, I suspect that Community will take #1 based on how last year played out in the seeding in some regions.

CM will be #3 and I see Calvary Christian jumping into #4 over Bishop Verot, as their district title trumps the BV semifinal loss enough to make up the 4 slots. BV slides into #5 and St Stephen’s should hold on to #6. Osceola should hold off Barron Collier for the #8 seed, as they made a District final, while Barron Collier and Estero did not.

Boys 2A

#1 Steinbrenner vs #8 Lakeland

#2 Plant vs #7 Newsome

#3 Gulf Coast vs #6 Palm Harbor

#4 Mitchell vs #5 Alonso

Everyone already knows how I feel about Plant’s treatment over the season, so I will not bother with doing that again, so let’s stick simply with the numbers as they currently are.

Coming in, we had Steinbrenner (#1/8), Plant (#2/15), Gulf Coast (#3/18), Mitchell (#4/20), Alonso (#5/28), Lakeland (#6/30), Palm Harbor (#7/32) and Newsome (#8/33). First Four Out is Wiregrass Ranch at 40, Riverview at 41, Sarasota at 44 and Bartow at 45, so in all likelihood all of the First Four Teams Out would need a significant event to move up, like winning a District or a quarterfinal loss by a team in front of them, and none of that happened.

All 4 #1’s won their district and only Riverview made their final. Lakeland did lose to #3 Newsome as a #2 in their semifinal, but they are not moving out with a 10-slot cushion. Mitchell should hold on for #4 over Alonso, as the 8 slots should be good enough to hold on. I see Lakeland slipping to #8 and how Palm Harbor and Newsome are handled are another look at relative strength of schedule in the District, as Newsome faced #2 Plant, while Palm Harbor faced #5 Alonso. Neither game came down to the wire. I think if Plant-Newsome had played to a similar score as Alonso-Palm Harbor, Gainesville might give Newsome the #6, but I think Palm Harbor takes that.

Girls 1A

#1 St. Stephen’s vs #8 Bishop Verot

#2 Community School vs #7 Naples

#3 Academy of Holy Names vs #6 Barron Collier

#4 Calvary Christian Clearwater vs #5 St. Petersburg Catholic

Coming in, this is how things stood: St. Stephen’s (#1/3), Community (#2/9), Academy of Holy Names (#3/15), St. Petersburg Catholic (#4/21), Calvary Christian Clearwater (#5/26), Naples (#6/30), Barron Collier (#7/32), Canterbury (#8/42). The First Four Out were Lely at 36, Cape Coral at 45, Estero at 48 and Bishop Verot at 49. Since Canterbury was the presumptive D11 winner, there was some movement possible but Barron Collier at 32 was who they were likely chasing.

What a difference a week made.

First, Bishop Verot upset Cape Coral and Canterbury to take D11, so Canterbury falls out in all likelihood. St. Petersburg Catholic lost to Cardinal Mooney, a team not even in the discussion, in their quarterfinal, but they will likely keep a high at-large bid, as Mooney was handled by SSE. Where to put SPC is rough, but their high ranking coming in should give them a cushion. CCC’s finals loss to Holy Names should keep them in with no problem. Barron Collier won the Naples semifinal and gave Community a solid game in the final.

Naples falls behind Barron Collier after their game and Bishop Verot won’t make up the 19 slots to get past Naples

Girls 2A

#1 Plant vs #8 Palm Harbor

#2 Steinbrenner vs #7 Lakewood Ranch

#3 Gulf Coast vs #6 Newsome

#4 Manatee vs #5 Riverview

Coming into the playoffs we had the following: Plant (#1/4), Steinbrenner (#2/5), Gulf Coast (#3/6), Manatee (#4/7), Riverview (#5/10), Newsome (#6/14), Lakewood Ranch (#7/19) and Palm Harbor (#8/21). The First Four Out were Sickles at 26, Mitchell at 32, Bloomingdale at 39 and Sarasota at 45.

Yep, the same thing with Steinbrenner Girls as the Plant Boys . . . Obviously a very fluid situation.

Without winning a District, the First Four Out would likely have required a Sickles semifinal win over Plant for them to have a shot at an at-large bid, so the eight ranked seeds pretty much played for slotting. All 4 #1’s won their District, and the only #2 to lose was Palmetto Ridge, which wasn’t figuring into the at-large discussion anyway.

Even with this bunching, I don’t think the Top 4 change at all. Any maybe nothing changes from this. Riverview eliminated Lakewood Ranch in the semifinal and Newsome beat Palm Harbor in their semifinal. None of the First Four Out won a semifinal except Mitchell and that’s not enough for them. If Steinbrenner leaps Plant, I really have to question how they trailed Plant to begin with and played the tougher District games. If Newsome and Riverview swap spots, that could indicate the tougher district they played in, but Riverview was basically as competitive with Manatee as Newsome was with Plant.