Tune in to Varsity Sports Network Florida for the final 1-hour season wrap-up show!

One theme that will likely run through these final polls is how I analyze the entire resume, outside of an automatic #1/#2 ranking for the finalists. Quality wins are very important (as measured by relative positioning) and quality losses vs bad losses are also including in my thinking. The higher the ranking, the likely there are quality wins, and you will see that schools that are in the ‘Also Considered’ tend to not have the signature win that gets them ranked.

As usual, there are a lot of A beats B, who then beats C, and when C upsets B it causes deeper analysis. Put on top of that, you have plenty of instances of teams in the Top 10 playing each other three times.

Don’t get too hung up on the records of the teams. The FHSAA ranking system tends to overemphasize Won-Loss record and Strength of Schedule (SOS) is underweighted in my opinion. Other ranking agencies tend to overweight SOS in my opinion, so I’m more inclined to analyze the total resume, as mentioned above.

The #1 and #2 slots are not just automatic because they met in the finals, but also because they were clearly the two best teams in the state when it came to my eye test, as well as total resumes. If I had one quibble with Bolles, it’s that the in-state schedule was a little light. We’ll see if that changes this year.

So we put SA at #1 and Bolles at #2, and then it gets very interesting. Lake Highland and Tampa Jesuit made up the other Final Four teams, yet it can be argued they are not #3 and #4. Not because they aren’t being considered, but because all over the state we had teams playing each other and knocking each other off, and the quality wins/bad losses are very close with a number of teams.

Jesuit’s losses were to Bolles, Ponte Vedra, Lake Mary and Benjamin, none of them by more than 3 goals. They hold wins over Plant on a neutral site, road wins over LHP and Cardinal Mooney, and Community School at home.

Lake Highland losses were to Benjamin (which was reversed in the Region final on the road), SA, Jesuit and Lake Mary. They also won road games against St. Edward’s (beat them 2x this year), Montverde and St. Thomas. A very tough schedule and a mix of results.

Benjamin played as good a schedule as anyone, and one of their losses was by 1 goal to nationally-ranked Bullis, which would have been the highest profile win by a Florida team in years (STA’s win over Massapequa was big, but this would have been bigger given the comparative rankings). In-state losses to St Thomas by 1, Jupiter (split the home-and-home), SA and Lake Highland, versus wins over Oxbridge, St. Edward’s 2x, SJP II, LHP, Jesuit and Plant (these last 3 over a 6-day period!), plus Holy Trinity, a game that almost portended the regional final.

St. Edward’s also played a very strong schedule, and their 6 losses were to Jupiter, Ponte Vedra, Benjamin 2x and LHP 2x. Against that, they hold wins over SA (at SA), St Thomas, Pine Crest, Montverde and Holy Trinity. That’s a lot of variation in the quality wins/losses category. Might be strange to say, but they could be seen as underachieving slightly.

SJP II played their normal tough schedule, and their losses were to Jupiter, SA, Lake Mary, Benjamin and Pine Crest in the bracket. Wins included Oxbridge 2x, AH-Plantation 2x, Belen and Vero. None of the wins were over teams ranked ahead of them, and a few of the losses were bad ones. Year in and year out, this has been a program that is consistently competitive and willing to play the best teams.

Community School is a program on the rise, and this year they took another step up the ladder; the losses were to Jesuit in a close regional final, Episcopal School, Pine Crest and St Thomas. Wins over Cardinal Mooney 2x were the best wins, so that’s a little light. Still some climbing to do, and the total resume isn’t quite as good as a number of these schools.

Cardinal Mooney loaded up the schedule for the year, and it likely caught up with them as the season wore on, as the scores showed. First half of the season included a 3-goal loss to Bolles on a neutral site, an OT win over Plant, road loss to Winter Park, road loss to Ponte Vedra, and home losses to Lake Mary and Jesuit. Community then completed the sweep with the one goal win in the regional semifinal. One high end quality win versus the near misses and a few bad losses hurts them some when the total resume is looked at.

Pine Crest is an interesting story. Started 2-4 with 3 of those losses without their top player, to Benjamin, St. Edward’s, SA and Oxbridge. Then they went 10-2, losing only to SA 2x (that’s SIX losses to SA in 2 years), including the regional final game, where they held a 5-1 lead before getting shut down the rest of the way. Their quality wins were over Oxbridge and SJP in the brackets, Belen and Community School, so there’s a gap between that resume and others above them.

Oak Hall’s schedule was not in the same category as the other schools here, their best wins over Episcopal School 2x and Creekside. Their two losses were in the first half of the season to Bartram Trail and Bolles gave them a bad loss in the regional final. Total resume is not up to the other teams here.

Oxbridge is an example of the difference between LN and FHSAA, as they were ranked 23rd by Gainesville in the final statewide ranking, while LN had them ranked at 12. The schedule was tough, but they lost all the tough games except for one win over Pine Crest and that was reversed by PC in the bracket. A down year for the normally Top 10 program.

Holy Trinity is a great example of how the progression works when you upgrade the schedule. Their four losses were to both Bolles and Nease midway through the season, when the schedule took the jump, and to St Edward’s before the playoffs began. All 3 looked worse on paper than in person, as they were second-half pullaways. Those losses were then followed by a good win over Montverde in the first round and what was likely their best performance of the year in the regional semifinal, taking Benjamin down to the end in a 2-goal loss. Montverde was the best win of the season.

Montverde struggled this year and really didn’t have an in-state signature win. Bishop Verot improved nicely this season, beating the teams they were supposed to beat, but their best win was over Gulf Coast and they need to bump the schedule up to get to the next level. When you look at the LN teams in this area, you’ll see a lot of middle-of-the-pack results and a lack of quality wins, except against each other, and that makes it difficult to rank them. A lot of that comes from the youth of some of these teams; I don’t remember the last time I saw freshmen and sophomores taking such prominent roles. Belen’s a good example of beating some of their peers but not playing well against the best teams on the schedule, and that is all over the place in this tier.

FLN 2023 Boys 1A Final Top 15 Poll!

1) Saint Andrew’s (20-3)

2) Bolles (23-3)

3t) Jesuit of Tampa (20-4)

3t) Benjamin (17-4)

5) Lake Highland (15-4)

6) St Edward’s (13-6)

7) Pine Crest (12-6)

8) SJP II (13-5)

9) Community School (16-4)

10) Cardinal Mooney (12-7)

11) Holy Trinity (17-4)

12) Oxbridge (8-10)

13) Oak Hall (19-2)

14t) Bishop Verot (16-4)

14t) Belen Jesuit (14-8)

Also Considered:

Episcopal School (15-7) and Montverde (9-7)