Tune in to Varsity Sports Network Florida for the final 1-hour season wrap-up show!

One theme that will likely run through these final polls is how I analyze the entire resume, outside of an automatic #1/#2 ranking for the finalists. Quality wins are very important (as measured by relative positioning) and quality losses vs bad losses are also including in my thinking. The higher the ranking, the likely there are quality wins, and you will see that schools that are in the ‘Also Considered’ tend to not have the signature win that gets them ranked.

As usual, there are a lot of A beats B, who then beats C, and when C upsets B it causes deeper analysis. Put on top of that, you have plenty of instances of teams in the Top 10 playing each other three times.

Don’t get too hung up on the records of the teams. The FHSAA ranking system tends to overemphasize Won-Loss record and Strength of Schedule (SOS) is underweighted in my opinion. Other ranking agencies tend to overweight SOS in my opinion, so I’m more inclined to analyze the total resume, as mentioned above.

The easy part is American Heritage-Delray and Lake Highland ending 1-2. Ponte Vedra lost in the semifinal by 1 goal to LHP and it took a goal with under 20 seconds left to do so. St. Stephen’s, on the other hand, was not competitive with AH-D and while that was the case with a lot of AH-D’s games, the way the game played out made me really dive deep into where to place SSE. Undefeated teams with weak schedules are always the toughest to judge. What would SSE’s record look if they played Episcopal School’s schedule? ESJ has 6 losses (including by 1 goal to PV and 2 goals to Vero) and wins over 2A champion Bartram Trail and Bishop Moore.

Another tough call is what to do with Bishop Moore. A 9-12 record and 0-4 vs LHP, with 2 of those games coming down to the wire. Two dominating wins vs 2A Region 2 #2 seed First Academy are the only wins that could be called quality wins. A one-goal loss to Lake Mary that was the first game of the year. If I am being consistent with my thoughts over the years, this is not a team I would have very high, even with the SOS being the 4th toughest in the state by both FHSAA and Laxnumbers (LN). LN ranked them #8 and FHSAA #21 when the final regular season poll came out. That’s a BIG difference.

St. Augustine was also a tough team to figure out. The only win that can qualify as a quality win was by one goal over Lake Brantley and they went 0-4 vs Ponte Vedra and ESJ, with one close game vs each, and one bad loss to both. They played tough teams besides those but lost them.

Community School split with 2A Gulf Coast, and also has an issue with SOS in general. They did get to the Region 3 final with a win over Academy of Holy Names. A solid record, but the schedule looked better on paper at the start of the season than it ended up being.

One interesting thing when looking at Region 4 is that AH-D’s dominance in head-to-head games made it difficult to assess the other schools there. No Region 4 team played them within 10 goals. That’s dominance. Until the last few games, it was looking like South Fork was the best of the bunch, but they fell apart the last two games after playing so well. Benjamin got hot late and made it to the region final, but also took a bad loss in it. Benjamin took 8 losses, so I can’t rank them high either when looking at the total resume.

Jensen Beach played a very competitive year, but also took 6 losses. Saint Andrew’s played a solid season but got clocked twice by AH-D and Benjamin handled them in the playoffs, but they also beat Benjamin early, and both Pine Crest and Boca Raton. That’s a better resume than a number of teams given that their losses were to the state champion, a title runner up in STA, and a hot Benjamin team.

Comparing Pine Crest and AH-Plantation really comes down to two teams with a similar record, but a big gap in SOS, as well as PC’s win over AH-P in head-to-head. Pine Crest suffered the misfortune of having their last few minutes of their regional semifinal rained out while trailing Benjamin by 2, so that could have been a quality win too.

Not an easy year once you get part 3!

FLN 2023 Girls 1A Top 10 Final Poll

1) American Heritage-Delray (22-1) – even IL FINALLY caught on

2) Lake Highland Prep (20-4) – not quite like previous years and in the title game they never really got started

3) Ponte Vedra (14-5) – one goal shy of the title game after a remarkable effort vs LHP

4) Episcopal School of Jacksonville (16-6) – the win over Bartram gets them in over SSE

5) St Stephen’s Episcopal (17-1) – if some of the teams below them hadn’t taken turns beating each other, they might well be lower. SOS hurt.

6) St. Andrew’s (13-4) – this might be controversial, but the total resume is actually better than the teams that got hot late

7) Pine Crest (14-4) – lost head-to-head to SA earlier in the season

8) St Augustine (16-6) – not enough quality wins to be higher

9) Benjamin (13-8) – hot finish after a star player came back from injury, but 8 losses can’t be overlooked

10) Community School (15-3) – not enough in the schedule to be higher.

Also-Considered:

Bishop Moore (9-12), Jensen Beach (13-6) and South Fork (12-3)