First, let me explain how I came to these conclusions since there are some assumptions we had to make, given how little the FHSAA gave out:

I started with the 4/5/22 FHSAA rankings, and since no one in Gainesville would confirm or deny that the games of 4/4 were included, I will go with what Tampa Lax Report said and make 4/5 the starting point for including results.

According to some of what was probable, the District playoff games carried a little more weight than a regular season game. The issue of a head to head win was never confirmed, so I will count the head to head in the playoff as more important.

Won-Loss record certainly seemed to be more important than first thought and strength of schedule less important, so I carried that thinking over too.

There are a few games left today due to weather and a brush fire, so they are inclusive of both schools when projecting positions/slots.

We are going to do one of these articles for each region – 16 in total.

I have no reason to think geography will be part of the selection process, like it is in the NCAA at times. If a District rematch is indicated in the first round, I am assuming it will be played. There is no indication that the FHSAA will avoid first round rematches at this time.

Margin of victory does not seem important, and a forfeit is not counted (this is problematic if won-loss is so important).

Okay, if I think of something else, I’ll add it!

Region 1 – Boys 1A

Bolles and Oak Hall are 1/2 no matter what. Episcopal School is 5 as the best at-large team.

The St. Augustine-Menendez final is being played today and it certainly complicates a few things. A Menendez win should make them the #4 seed, with Gulf Breeze at #3. Where it also gets interesting is at #6/#7 in the at-large bids, with Maclay and South Walton.

Coming into the last phase and accounting for 4/5 onward:

(When you see these numbers, assume they are the team’s 4/5 FHSAA ranking IN THEIR CLASS)

Maclay – #24 – 2-2 record and a final loss to Oak Hall

South Walton – #28 – 3-1 since, but lost the district final

Gulf Breeze – #36 – 3-0 with the district title

St. Augustine – #37 – 1-2 going into the final, head-to-head win over Menendez 7-5

Pensacola Catholic – #38 – 2-1 and lost in the district semifinal

Menendez – #44 – 2-1 record going into the final

Analysis:

Looks like Gulf Breeze is likely to lock up the #3 seed either way since they were one slot ahead of St. Augustine anyhow. So, it’s either St. Augustine or Menendez in #4. Based on this, I don’t see Menendez getting an at-large bid.

It looks like Maclay will barely hold on to the #6 seed, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see that flipped.

A St. Augustine loss probably knocks them out as the last team out, but it is really close since Pensacola Catholic did not win a district playoff game. I’ll predict that PC would hang on barely to the #8 seed over a losing St. Augustine team.

*****

So, this is how it looks pending today’s game:

#1 Bolles vs #8 Pensacola Catholic

#2 Oak Hall vs #7 South Walton

#3 Gulf Breeze vs #6 Maclay

#4 St. Augustine/Menendez vs #5 Episcopal School