First, let me explain how I came to these conclusions since there are some assumptions we had to make, given how little the FHSAA gave out:

I started with the 4/5/22 FHSAA rankings, and since no one in Gainesville would confirm or deny that the games of 4/4 were included, I will go with what Tampa Lax Report said and make 4/5 the starting point for including results.

According to some of what was probable, the District playoff games carried a little more weight than a regular season game. The issue of a head to head win was never confirmed, so I will count the head to head in the playoff as more important.

Won-Loss record certainly seemed to be more important than first thought and strength of schedule less important, so I carried that thinking over too.

There are a few games left today due to weather and a brush fire, so they are inclusive of both schools when projecting positions/slots.

We are going to do one of these articles for each region – 16 in total.

I have no reason to think geography will be part of the selection process, like it is in the NCAA at times. If a District rematch is indicated in the first round, I am assuming it will be played. There is no indication that the FHSAA will avoid first round rematches at this time.

Margin of victory does not seem important, and a forfeit is not counted (this is problematic if won-loss is so important).

Okay, if I think of something else, I’ll add it!

Region 1 – Girls 1A

Based on the rankings and the district winners, one thing changed from 4/5, and that is Pensacola Catholic snatched the District 1 title away from Gulf Breeze by a score of 10-9. That puts them into the #3 seed, with Episcopal School at #1, St. Augustine at #2 and Oak Hall at #4.

The at-large contenders are:

Gulf Breeze – #26 – 1-1 record after 4/4 and a one goal final loss

Bolles – #29 – 2-2 record and lost the semifinal

Menendez – #30 – 4-1 record, lost the final

Seacoast Collegiate – #39 – 2-1, lost the semifinal

South Walton – #44 – 2-1 record and lost the semifinal

Wolfson – #47, lost the final after beating Bolles in the semifinal

Analysis:

This is really interesting with how to treat Wolfson and Bolles. The Wolfson upset in the district semifinals really gives us some insight into how the FHSAA is thinking when we see the final bracket.

Gulf Breeze likely gets the #5 seed since they made the district final, which Bolles did not do. Menendez finished much stronger than Bolles, so they should leapfrog and go to #6. Bolles won’t be caught by anyone else, so they slot into #7.

And then we have Seacoast, South Walton and Wolfson vying for #8. Seacoast trumps South Walton since they both finished the same way, but how much does Wolfson’s win help? 8 slots to catch up is a LOT, but a strong district semifinal win could do it. We’ll see tomorrow!

*****

So, this is how it looks:

#1 Episcopal School vs #8 Seacoast Collegiate/Wolfson

#2 St. Augustine vs #7 Bolles

#3 Pensacola Catholic vs #6 Menendez

#4 Oak Hall vs #5 Gulf Breeze