We now know the FHSAA will release the brackets LIVE on their YouTube channel on Sunday morning at 8:30am. Should that change, we will let you know here, and on Twitter and Facebook.

To enlighten the readers, the Four district winners are given bids, but not necessarily #1 – #4, and they are not guaranteed a home game. The next four teams in the power rankings (a District winner might not be a Top 8 ranked team, like the Bishop Verot Girls below) are given at-large bids, and they are then ranked #1 – #8 for pairings. The higher ranked team has the home game in the first round, but if a District winner faces an at-large team as a LOWER seed, they do get the home game.

When you see a bracket after the team that looks like (#2/7), that means they are the #2 Seed in the latest power rankings in that Region/Class, and the #7 overall in their Class in the state.

Boys 1A

#1 Bolles vs #8 Menendez

#2 Oak Hall vs #7 Trinity Catholic

#3 Pensacola Catholic vs #6 Providence

#4 Episcopal School vs #5 South Walton

Coming into the playoffs, here’s where things stood: Bolles (#1/1), Oak Hall (#2/7), Episcopal School (#3/19), Pensacola Catholic (#4/20), Providence (#5/32), Trinity Catholic (#6/38), South Walton (#7/40) and Menendez (#8/41). The First Four Out are Tocoi Creek at 47, West Florida at 55, Maclay at 59 and Paxon at 63.

All four of the districts finished their district playoffs, so we don’t have to wait for a late game. In addition, all four saw the #1 and #2 seeds make their district finals, and the #1 seeds all won their games comfortably. Episcopal’s finals loss to Bolles likely flips them with Pensacola Catholic, since it was a one slot difference to start.

South Walton won their district while Trinity Catholic and Providence did not get to their finals, but again, we see how Providence’s tough district plays into this. Certainly, I see South Walton jumping Trinity Catholic, but the 8 slots above them to Providence might be too much, but it will be close though. None of the teams between Providence and South Walton across the state did anything positive, so I think there’s a good chance South Walton will grab away the #5 seed.

#8 Menendez should stay put behind Trinity Catholic, due to TC’s semifinal win over them.

Boys 2A

#1 Lake Mary vs #8 St. Augustine

#2 Ponte Vedra vs #7 Leon

#3 Nease vs #6 Niceville

#4 Forest vs #5 Creekside

Coming into the playoffs, we had the following: Lake Mary (#1/1), Ponte Vedra (#2/2), Nease (#3/6), Creekside (#4/7), Leon (#5/9), Forest (#6/10), St. Augustine (#7/12) and Bartram Trail (#8/14). The First Four Out were Lake Brantley at 17, Niceville at 23, Gulf Breeze at 26 and Fleming Island at 27.

Loaded. Ponte Vedra and Nease are playing tonight for the D2 title and I will assume PV wins for this exercise. Should Nease win, that guarantees Lake Mary the #1 seed and maybe even gives Nease the #2, but I think that PV wins. The rest of the Districts are done.

And we have the same issue here that Jesuit/Community have in Region 3; how much does a district’s quality affect the final seeding? Ponte Vedra would have victories over Nease and Bartram; could that leap them over Lake Mary into #1? In this case, we do have a head-to-head with Lake Mary having the win. It’s between #1 and #2 in the state, not the 6 vs 8 of Jesuit-Community. I think Lake Mary holds on to the #1, but I do give PV maybe a 20% chance of stealing it away.

Niceville’s D1 title win over Leon obviously steals a place for them and the semifinal win over Gulf Breeze eliminates GB from at-large consideration. Nease edged Creekside in their semifinal, so they won’t drop below #3 for any reason. Leon will fall, but probably not below #7. St Augustine can’t move out after their 2nd place finish and Bartram probably falls out. How far does Forest move up? They only trailed Creekside by 3 slots. Maybe all the way to #4, with Creekside behind them.

#6/#7/#8 is REALLY close.

Girls 1A

#1 Ponte Vedra vs #8 South Walton

#2 Episcopal School vs #7 Tocoi Creek

#3 St. Augustine vs #6 Bolles

#4 Pensacola Catholic vs #5 Oak Hall

Coming into the playoffs, we had: Ponte Vedra (#1/4), Episcopal School (#2/7), St. Augustine (#3/10), Bolles (#4/16), Pensacola Catholic (#5/18), Oak Hall (#6/22), Tocoi Creek (#7/29) and Wolfson (#8/37). The First Four Out are South Walton at 40, Fleming Island at 47, Seacoast Collegiate at 54 and Menendez at 55.

Ponte Vedra and St. Augustine play tonight in the D3 final. The rest of the Districts are done. All four districts show a #1/#2 seed final, and so far the #1 seed has swept comfortably. PV won the regular season game 19-8, so let’s assume they win tonight; a St. Augustine win makes the #1 seed in the region tough to predict.

So far, besides the other district winners, Bolles beat Wolfson in their semifinal, but lost badly to Epsicopal School, while Pensacola Catholic wont theirs, so I expect Pensacola Catholic to take the #4 seed. Oak Hall and Bolles were separated by 6 slots, so they might jump Bolles too. Tocoi Creek made their final, so they should have an at-large bid, while Wolfson fell to Bolles in their 2/3 semifinal matchup. South Walton is three slots behind Wolfson and did get to their final, so I think they take the #8 seed from Wolfson.

Girls 2A

#1 Bartram Trail vs #8 Fletcher

#2 Lake Mary vs #7 Creekside

#3 Oviedo vs #6 Apopka

#4 Lake Brantley vs #5 Gulf Breeze

Coming into the playoffs, we had the following: Bartram Trail (#1/3), Lake Mary (#2/8), Lake Brantley (#3/9), Oviedo (#4/13), Apopka (#5/20), Buchholz (#6/24), Gulf Breeze (#7/28) and Fletcher (#8/35). The First Four Out are Creekside at 29, Niceville at 31, Atlantic Coast at 41 and Nease at 47.

As you can see, Fletcher is behind Creekside in the rankings, but Fletcher won their District. Gulf Breeze won their district in a tight 7-4 win over Niceville, so that likely eliminates Niceville. Creekside beat Buchholz in the district semifinal before bowing to Bartram and that might well make up the 5 slots they are behind Buchholz, leaving Buchholz the likely last team out. Oviedo knocked off Lake Brantley in their semifinal so they should take the #3 seed. Apopka also lost in their semifinal, making them vulnerable to falling behind Gulf Breeze.