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Bracketology Predictions – Region 4

We now know the FHSAA will release the brackets LIVE on their YouTube channel on Sunday morning at 8:30am. Should that change, we will let you know here, and on Twitter and Facebook.

To enlighten the readers, the Four district winners are given bids, but not necessarily #1 – #4, and they are not guaranteed a home game. The next four teams in the power rankings (a District winner might not be a Top 8 ranked team, like the Key West Girls below) are given at-large bids, and they are then ranked #1 – #8 for pairings. The higher ranked team has the home game in the first round, but if a District winner faces an at-large team as a LOWER seed, they do get the home game.

When you see a bracket after the team that looks like (#2/7), that means they are the #2 Seed in the latest power rankings in that Region/Class, and the #7 overall in their Class in the state.

Boys 1A (Gulliver wins)

#1 Saint Andrew’s vs #8 King’s Academy

#2 SJP vs #7 Gulliver Prep

#3 Pine Crest vs #6 Calvary Christian Ft Laud

#4 Belen Jesuit vs #5 Oxbridge

Boys 1A (Westminster wins)

#1 Saint Andrew’s vs #8 Westminster Christian

#2 SJP vs #7 Gulliver Prep

#3 Pine Crest vs #6 Calvary Christian Ft Laud

#4 Belen Jesuit vs #5 Oxbridge

Coming into the playoffs, the following was: Saint Andrew’s (#1/2), Saint John Paul (#2/9), Pine Crest (#3/14), Calvary Christian Ft Lauderdale (#4/18), Belen Jesuit (#5/21), Oxbridge (#6/23), American Heritage-Delray (#7/24) and Gulliver Prep (#8/27). The First Four Out are American Heritage-Plantation at 25, King’s Academy at 26, NSU University at 29 and Cardinal Newman at 36. (Westminster is at 37)

Gulliver Prep and Westminster Christian are playing today for the D16 title, and because of the way the games have played out so far, there is a possibility that a Gulliver loss could still keep them in as an at-large bid, and Westminster Christian did win the regular season game.

Saint Andrew’s and SJP won their districts, over Pine Crest and Oxbridge. PC defeated CC FTL in their district semifinal, while Belen eliminated NSU from consideration while winning their district. Both AH’s lost badly in their semifinals, which is why the door could be open for Gulliver as an at-large bid, so the prediction is hedged with the two scenarios. King’s Academy has the best argument, if Gulliver wins, to take the 8-seed.

Boys 2A

#1 St. Thomas vs #8 Coral Reef

#2 Jupiter vs #7 Boca Raton

#3 Western/Columbus vs #6 Spanish River

#4 Western/Columbus vs #5 Palmetto

Coming into the playoffs, we have the following: St. Thomas (#1/3), Jupiter (#2/5), Western (#3/11), Columbus (#4/24), Palmetto (#5/25), Coral Reef (#6/31), Boca Raton (#7/35) and Spanish River (#8/39). The First Four Out are Martin County at 47, Stoneman at 52 (how much blame does an AD deserve for taking a former Top 10 program in the state and running it into the ground? Care to answer sir?), Wellington at 57 and West Boca at 63.

In District 15, Stoneman and West Boca need to play before the winner gets St. Thomas tomorrow. Let’s assume STA will take that district and neither Stoneman nor West Boca will figure into it. In District 16, Western and Columbus meet for the title tonight. Both are in the bracket, so we’ll do the same as in Boys 1A and give two scenarios (but this is really only about #3/#4).

Jupiter has the easy win in their district, but the head-to-head loss to STA a few weeks back should mean St Thomas holds the #1 seed. What is very interesting is that Western is currently well ahead of Columbus (11 vs 24) so even a Columbus loss might not get them to #3. Columbus did take care of Palmetto easily in the semifinal, so #4 is their floor. Coral Reef lost to Western in the other semifinal, but since none of the Out Teams made any move yet, it’s hard to see them not getting an at-large too.

Spanish River took the D14 title by one goal over Boca Raton, and that will certainly move them up, but how far? Palmetto might be too far, but Coral Reef might not be. And does Boca’s final appearance also move them up? I would argue so.

Girls 1A (Benjamin wins)

#1 AH-Delray vs #8 Key West

#2 Pine Crest vs #7 Jensen Beach

#3 Saint Andrew’s vs #6 Benjamin

#4 South Fork vs #5 AH-Plantation

Girls 1A (Jensen Beach wins)

#1 AH-Delray vs #8 Key West

#2 Pine Crest vs #7 King’s Academy

#3 Saint Andrew’s vs #6 AH-Plantation

#4 South Fork vs #5 Jensen Beach

Coming into the playoffs, we have the following: American Heritage-Delray (#1/1), Saint Andrew’s (#2/5), South Fork (#3/6), Pine Crest (#4/8), AH-Plantation (#5/11), Jensen Beach (#6/12), King’s Academy (#7/14) and Key West (#8/27). The First Four Out are SJP at 17, St Edward’s at 23, Benjamin at 24 and NSU University at 28. Obviously, the first thing that sticks out is how deep this region is, and how THREE Teams Out are ranked ahead of Key West, who will gain the automatic bid in D16 in all likelihood.

Benjamin’s upset of South Fork in the D13 semifinal threw quite the wrench into things. Benjamin and Jensen Beach play tonight for the automatic bid.

AH-Delray handled Saint Andrew’s easily in their title game. Pine Crest got by AH-Plantation by four goals and that should keep AH-Plantation in an at-large birth, but does Pine Crest go up to #2? I would argue yes since it was only a 3-slot difference. Given that Key West is automatic, it’s all about the 7-seed and up, and with the results, this is one hard region to predict.

If Benjamin wins, Jensen Beach should get in as an at-large. Where South Fork falls to is the toughest part of this to predict. If Jensen wins, it looks like Benjamin falls short of making the bracket, so we’ll do those two scenarios. King’s lost by one goal to Saint Andrew’s in the semifinals, and SJP was handled easily by AH-Delray, so SJP shouldn’t jump King’s.

Girls 2A

#1 Boca Raton vs #8 Seminole Ridge

#2 St. Thomas vs #7 Martin County

#3 Jupiter vs #6 Wellington

#4 Stoneman vs #5 Palmetto

Coming into the playoffs, we have the following: Boca Raton (#1/11), St. Thomas (#2/15), Jupiter (#3/16), Stoneman (#4/17), Palmetto (#5/36), Wellington (#6/37), Martin County (#7/38) and Dwyer (#8/54). The First For Out are Western at 55, Seminole Ridge ad 59, Park Vista at 61 and Lourdes Academy at 63.

Two things stand out, there are two separate bunchings in the ratings, and this isn’t a strong region.

We still have St. Thomas playing Coral Glades tomorrow (Western forfeited to Coral Glades according to my sources) for that title and we’ll assume STA takes that.

Jupiter won their district comfortably over Wellington and Boca Raton got past Stoneman 15-12 last night for that district title. Dwyer was upset by Seminole Ridge in the quarterfinals and that might well be enough to slip Seminole Ridge past them (54 vs 59 coming in) even though SR lost to Jupiter in the semifinal. I do think that gets them in (SR was one of the teams that Laxnumbers consistently had a higher ranking than FHSAA).

Palmetto won their district so they stay ahead at #5 and Wellington beat Martin County in their semifinal, so they should stay put at #6.