Well, here we go!
Berths in the Final Four at stake!
Let’ get it on . . .
(The leading scorers of each team were handled back on Morning Coffee before the previous round, check out the 4/27 Morning Coffee for those, or look at MaxPreps pages for each team)
Bolles hosting Oak Hall
Bolles was last year’s surprise Final Four entrant, and they have a great chance to get back there again. They took a regular season win at Oak Hall back on April 8th, 10-7. Strength of schedule is pretty much the same for each school, but Bolles has a road win over Winter Park, which is a signature win that Oak Hall can’t match.
There’s a difference in save percentage that could also factor into who wins this game, according to the latest MaxPreps stats.
Having home field advantage should give Bolles a little more of an edge over the regular season result. I see Oak Hall hanging around for most of the game, but a similar result to what happened in the previous game, as Bolles goes on to their second straight Final Four
Benjamin hosting Montverde
I attended the last Montverde game at Holy Trinity, as they jumped out early and held on down the stretch for the win. Benjamin continued their late season run with a solid second half performance against St. Edward’s.
Statistically, there’s not a heck of a lot between these two teams, but when you delve into the schedule you see a decent difference in results. Benjamin’s strength of schedule is higher, but most importantly, they won a number of games against top competition, while Montverde’s best win was over Bolles. Benjamin has wins over Pine Crest, Oxbridge, Jupiter twice and went 2-1 versus St. Edward’s.
I don’t see Benjamin’s surge ending here and look for them to win this game by about 5 goals, as they continue their search for a state title.
Jesuit hosting Community School
These two teams have had excellent years, but I would put them slightly below the SA’s and Benjamin’s this year due to their schedules and results against the tougher teams. Jesuit’s best wins are over Oak Hall, Cardinal Mooney and Canterbury, while losing to Lake Mary and Plant. Community School’s best wins are over Gulf Coast, Western and AH-Plantation, while splitting with Cardinal Mooney.
Both teams have middle of the pack strengths of schedule.
Jesuit has a dominant faceoff percentage and solid save percentage, while Community didn’t post those numbers. They did not play this year.
Home field means a long bus trip for Community and an advantage for Jesuit, which is looking to finally make their first Final Four after just missing out in 2012, and I see Jesuit winning a close game, by about 3-4 goals.
Saint Andrew’s hosting Oxbridge
Plenty of history with this one, including meeting in the District final just last year. Oxbridge has won as an underdog against the Scots and lost as a favorite in playoff games in the past.
SA’s strength of schedule is tops in 1A by quite a bit and has only lost to STA by one on the road against a Florida school. Oxbridge has wins over Jupiter, Belen and Canterbury, but lost to both Pine Crest and Benjamin, teams SA handled.
They played back on March 10th, with SA winning 9-7 at Oxbridge. Last season, the regular season game was closer than the district final and I suspect we’ll see a repeat of that here, as the Scots look to defend their state title from last year.