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FLN Weekly High School Media Poll (Well, This Writer Anyhow!)

Written by Lee Roggenburg on . Posted in .
  What a week.  What a season. My job just got a LOT tougher.  And not just in the Top 10 as some schools not considered before have stepped up, and one of those cracks the Top 10 for the first time this season as well as the first time if I had been doing this the last 20 years. In some ways, the upheaval in the polls mirrors the last few years in Division I college rankings. How do you rank teams that are upcoming programs but don’t necessarily have the ability to schedule the big boys versus the programs that schedule so many of them that records that look on the surface as average mask the actual quality of the team?  I used to complain about this myself on LaxPower forums in past years and even would tweak IL’s analysts by pointing out that some of the ‘lesser’ names would get overlooked because strength of schedule (‘SOS’) was weaker . . . weaker because they could not get on the schedule of an ACC team or some other ‘bigger’ names to prove themselves.  It became a self-reinforcing issue and many schools were ‘under-rated’ because of SOS. And now I’m starting to have that same feeling; but this time in reverse as I am the one who needs to guard against that urge! About the only thing I can EASILY say this week is that Jupiter is #1.  Undefeated with plenty of quality wins, including the complete beatdown of Saint Andrew’s . . . AND a road win at that. Then it gets really interesting as #2 Boca Raton fell after surrendering a 5-goal lead.  5 of last week’s Top 10 lost.  I don’t know how long it’s been since that could be said. I hope that the readers of this Top 10 this week understand that this poll took a LOT of thinking, balancing off the whole season’s body of work of the teams while trying to be fair to those who are starting to peak versus those who are not.  That is why I still have Boca rated higher than Pope John Paul II, which breaks into the Top 10 this week for the first time and defeated Boca Friday night.  I just can’t overlook Boca’s full results this season, which still are well above PJP’s. Another item to explain.  Most of the readers of this poll know by now the story we broke on Saturday morning concerning Lake Brantley.  Until we have a final resolution of that investigation I will continue to treat Lake Brantley as if they have done nothing wrong, hence their continued inclusion in this week’s Top 10.  Should the FHSAA rule for penalties I will decide at that point based on what happens whether to adjust my thinking on their inclusion.   So, here is the new Top 10 Media Poll going into the week starting March 17th!   #1 Jupiter #2 Lake Highland Prep #3 Barron Collier #4 Ponte Vedra #5 Boca Raton #6 Saint Andrew’s #7 Lake Brantley #8 Pope John Paul II #9 Benjamin #10 Gulf Coast   Also considered for Top 10:  Lake Mary, St. Thomas Aquinas Teams that are currently looking to move up into consideration:  Melbourne Central Catholic, Columbus Catholic, Spanish River, Oxbridge, Oviedo, Seminole, Oak-Hall-Gainesville and University School (NSU). Teams that can still make a move but need quality wins to right the ship:  Tampa Jesuit, Vero Beach and Jensen Beach Special Mention #1:  District 23 – Three Top 10 Teams and a fourth that is red hot.  Unreal. Special Mention #2:  3 of these Top 10 teams WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF DISTRICT!!!  How amazing is that? Special Mention #3:  Welcome to the big time Seminole and Gulf Coast   Okay, let’s talk through this. Jupiter remains at the top with 2 Top 10 wins over Saint Andrew’s and Lake Mary.  They are not back in action until March 24th so they remain #1 next week too.  But starting that day they play Vero, Benjamin and Ponte Vedra . . . in 4 days. Lake Highland moves up one spot due to their comfortable win over Georgia power Lovett and their impressive effort Saturday against national #1 Boy’s Latin.  They get another shot at the MIAA Tuesday in Vero against national #4 McDonogh (Md.) and also host St. Thomas Aquinas on Friday. Barron Collier continues to move up the rankings as they won impressively over STA on Friday. They now go from the hunter to the hunted as they still face Vero, Oak Hall-Gainesville, Oxbridge and Gulf Coast, as those teams look to make their mark on the season.  Right now Barron Collier looks to be the favorite to come out of the southern bracket to make the Final Four. Ponte Vedra moves up to #4 with solid wins over the best teams in South Carolina over the weekend.  They get to prepare for their showdown with #1 Jupiter on 3/27.  Can they get over the hump on the road? Boca Raton falls to #5 after a week where they nipped STA 10-9 in overtime in a thriller and then lost 11-10 against Pope John Paul II.  They travel to Vero on Tuesday to try to revenge last year’s home loss and it will be interesting to see how they rebound after the tough loss.  Their season-long body of work is still among the best in the state. Saint Andrew’s falls to #6 after the Tuesday loss to Jupiter, followed by a home win Friday against a solid Gulliver Prep team.  They face their traditional MIAA slate this week, playing both Boys’ Latin and McDonogh, as well as Kinkaid (Tx.).  Not exactly the schedule you would want to face if you wanted to right the ship but maybe this will be what the Scots need to regain their mojo. Lake Brantley falls to #7 following the shocking upset by a rapidly improving Seminole program. This may be too high given their SOS but I’ll take a wait and see attitude on them for this week. Pope John Paul II makes their season debut at #8 off their win over Boca Raton, then ranked #2.  Pope was a trendy pick by experts to make a breakthrough this year as Coach Andy Bolger had been grooming a group of kids for a few years and now that they are seniors they are coming into their own.  A 3/7 loss to Saint Andrew’s might have been the jolt this team needed to take the next step and it paid off Friday.  There are still some pretty good challenges on the schedule, including the last big District 23 game with a suddenly red-hot Spanish River. Benjamin takes over sole possession of #9 after a one-game week against Florida competition. But this week they step up big time, with road matches against 2 MIAA teams, Severn and Calvert Hall, which should make Coach Rye’s team ready for their game against area rival Jupiter the following week.  Can Benjamin’s young guns continue their growth against this level of competition? Gulf Coast sneaks into the Top 10 with a signature win of their own.  Yesterday they took their 7-0 record to fellow 7-0 Tampa Jesuit and came away with the 11-9 road win in what is likely the biggest win in program history.  They still have three quality games left on the schedule, facing Vero, Milton (Ga.) and Barron Collier so whether they deserve this elevation will be determined on the field, where it belongs.  First Barron Collier and now Gulf Coast . . . Southwest Florida lacrosse is now on the map! —————- Other Top 10 considerations were Lake Mary and St. Thomas.  Both suffered tough losses to excellent competition.  Lake Mary is a solid team that maybe does not have the depth this year to go far into the playoffs but are talented enough to certainly make noise.  And in a one-game tournament setting can be very dangerous.  STA is finally showing the effects of the injury bug as they have now lost 3 straight, 2 in overtime, and all on the road to Top 10 teams.  Still a very impressive overall body of work and they remain a very dangerous team. Wow, what a week that was. Next week’s games that will potentially affect the rankings and other considerations: Monday – Spanish River vs. Jensen Beach and Columbus Catholic vs. Pine Crest Tuesday – Vero Beach vs. Boca Raton Thursday – Melbourne Central Catholic vs. Wellington and Tampa Jesuit vs. Gonzaga (DC.) – TJ’s last opportunity for a quality win Friday – Barron Collier vs. Oxbridge, Vero Beach vs. Spanish River, University (NSC) vs. Pine Crest and Hagerty vs. Lake Brantley Saturday – Lake Highland vs. St. Thomas Aquinas I don’t think that losses to MIAA schools really hurt Florida polls. A win is another story . . .   Have fun this week!  Go see a game!