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Final Four Musings – And A Few Predictions . . . Or Not

Written by Lee Roggenburg on . Posted in .
  Reminder, we’ll be live blogging today from the semifinals!   This one will be fun. Last year’s was incredibly dramatic Girls Semis:  Bartran Trail by one, Vero by 6 Boys Semis:  Ponte Vedra by 6, STA in 3OT Girls Finals:  Bartram in OT Boys Finals:  STA by 2 And both 6-goal wins were interesting to watch with their own story lines.  Vero’s last stand against an 8th grade wunderkind and PV finally putting a ghost to bed. A 10-year streak coming to an end and a first time crown for the football power.   And now we have so many stories this year. FOUR new Girls semifinalists from last year’s group.  Not sure when the last time, if ever, that has happened.  Well, except for the first year of course . . . Four Boys semifinalists that have all been here in the last two years.  With one dominant power playing last minute heroics as a strategic plan It’ll be fun.   Two years ago I witnessed a Girls’ semifinal full of intrigue. In the first game it was Ponte Vedra comfortably getting by Olympia to get their shot at what they thought was the dynasty.  A Ponte Vedra team that felt it was their time.  PV did get their desired matchup but came up short in the finals to the dynasty. On the other side of the bracket we got the dream matchup for the Girls . . . the Dynasty versus the U-19 National Team stud (studette? – someone help me on that one please . . . ).  Tied at 9 with about 5 minutes to go.  And then a second yellow card ended that one. Fast forward to last year. Ponte Vedra again on a mission to get that gold ring.  A heck of a regular season.  One loss in state, two to national foes.  A district final against a team they had beaten just a month earlier by 7 goals. And Cinderella showed up at the ball to upset them in the finals of that district. This wasn’t any ordinary Cinderella . . . this was the Grade A in your face variety. So potent that 5 games later they were facing the Dynasty and the glass slipper never fell off the foot.  And the foot ended up kicking the Dynasty to the curb. Now with a new coach, Ponte Vedra makes their way back to the Final Four looking for redemption.  A tough second round and a not much easier quarterfinal. Avenged a regular season loss to Bartram with a resounding district final result . . . can the shoes fit them too? The new coach, Karen Healy-Silcott, has some similarities to me.  Freeport High AND Syracuse?  If she is a Rangers fan that’s the final straw . . .   The other side of the semifinal matchup is Bishop Moore.  Cruised through their games so far.  Hasn’t lost since March 17th . . . to St. Thomas. Last made the brackets in 2014, where they lost in the first round.  This is the upstart, just like the Boys’ team was this year.  Something in the water? These teams did not play in the regular season. And there is not a lot of common opponents to compare scores. Making this matchup pretty wide open.   On the other side of the bracket we get two teams that were not the favorites going into their Final 8 games but hardly big underdogs either. The Dynasty (Vero Beach if you are new to the state or haven’t followed Girls’ lacrosse before) hosted the Stud’s school (Barron Collier for the record) in the last round and Barron rallied from a 5-0 deficit to pull out the 9-7 win. St. Thomas hosted American Heritage/Delray on the other side.  Most people who follow the Girls know how much they’ve been covered in the national lacrosse media.  But few of you probably knew that STA was also getting their own accolades nationally. Going into this one it was IL’s National Poll showing AH/D at #20 and STA at #24.  That’s pretty close and the game reflected that.  An OT win by STA on their home field sends them on to this game.   When you look at the Girls’ side something interesting becomes apparent . . . how the growth on the Girls’ side mimics in one way, and a big way, the Boys’ game.  The influence of the northeast. And it also mimics the tussle in the young turk versus old guard. It runs the gamut from 24-year old Samantha MacCurdy at STA, a Vero Beach grad with a lot of rings, through 37-year old Silcott, a Long Island and upstate NY product, to 44-year old Rob Chomo, a star player in his days at the University of Maryland and on to 40-something (it’s not my fault Kelly, it’s in the Press Booklet!) Kelly Blystone, from New Jersey and Boston College. Well, maybe old guard is unfair . . . NONE of these coaches have been in place for more than two years.  That’s an interesting thing to note since NONE of them have had the time to build the program via a feeder system they themselves built. It should really make for an interesting series of games.   Predictions? I really have no idea about the PV-BM game, having not seen either team.  Last year the upstart took it all, is it realistic to think that happens two years running? I did see Barron Collier this year but not STA, so hard to really predict that one too. No point in guessing. Just enjoy both games tomorrow.   On the Boys’ side it’s almost a Groundhog Day revival.  The 2015 semifinal and the 2016 semifinal. In 2015 it was LHP pulling away to easily beat Lake Mary and last year it was the STA 3OT win over Benjamin that propelled them to the final and the title.   The combined coaching results of these four coaches is pretty darn good. Terry has a ring, Chris has four . . . and I’m not even counting the Club titles for Benjamin And if you secretly took a poll of the long time coaches down here who they least want preparing the game plan against them . . . Garrick wins that one most of the time, if not all. Oh, and Shane was Coach of the Year in this region.   St. Thomas, so dominant for the last two years plus, meeting the team that almost took them out last year The best word to describe the Raiders . . . seasoned . . . or mature if you prefer Lengthy possessions early, tough midfield play, solid faceoff and goaltending specialists . . . wear you down, beat you up On the other side is Benjamin.  Faster paced, surprisingly big on the offensive side of the ball, solid faceoff and goaltending specialists . . . Okay, you get it What’s the point of predicting it? Could they out do themselves from last year? It would probably take a fourth OT this time to do that.   Will one of the goaltenders play lights out?  Or struggle?  STA’s David Madrill consolidated his spot and Austin Michels has come a long way since his sophomore year when he took over for Benjamin. Can Benjamin turn the ball over on defense and get STA out of rhythm?  Kevin Crowley and Jimmy Harrington combined give you a viper strike.  Kind of like the snake bite . . . or a Randy Orton RKO out of nowhere if you prefer that fun meme that was making the rounds last year.  Shane Campbell’s loss for the year on defense for Benjamin might well be the biggest factor in how that plays out. Does the underrated STA defense continue it’s dominant postseason play?  I don’t see how Benjamin wins a 7-6 game.  Blake Erdmann might have scored the quietest 53 goals in the history of the state.  Also an off-ball specialist.  Has Will Nicklaus finally settled in?  Will Benjamin try to match strength with strength and attack from up top or look to use their height in a way that surprises STA?  Can they stretch the defensive midfield out some and get attackmen into the spaces created behind that midfield? Lobosco versus Izquierdo at the faceoff also holds some pretty good influence. Lots of intrigue . . . A contrast in coaching strategies too.  STA has been more of a feel them out and go from there offense while Benjamin has been more of a tactical planning approach. Or maybe all of these happen and we get something no one expects. Tune in!   On the other side we really have intrigue.  In the regular season LHP clocked Lake Mary pretty good.  But that was a hurting Lake Mary team that is much healthier right now.  LHP has improved quite a bit during the year.  it might even be Chris Spaulding’s best coaching job. But Lake Mary got it together later in the year against a pretty rough schedule.  And then surprised everyone with their win over Ponte Vedra.  LHP managed to grind their way through their playoff games.  Late comeback against Hagerty, late comeback against Bishop Moore, before the easy Berkeley Prep win. Which LHP team shows? Which Lake Mary team shows? I could see every possibility in this game.  LHP easy win like the regular season all the way to a Lake Mary win. It’s not a cop out on my part.  These teams have been all over the map all season. Last year the South Carolina Girls’ basketball team lost to UConn in the NCAA by 60 points, and then beat them this year. It’s still kids.  Performance Beta is high.   On paper, Lake Mary’s Charlie Ragault is probably the best player on the field.  But he’s not a one-trick pony by any means.  Kyle Sande, Taylor Ayres, Bryce Mumpower and Braeden MacKercher combined for 141 goals to supplement him.  Shiloh Shassian is a top notch faceoff specialist and I believe he missed the first matchup.  Michael Hubbard in goal stepped up later in the season too. Lake Highland’s offense showed some issues against the better teams they played.  But when they scored it was in bunches and part of that is how widespread their offense was.  SEVEN players scored more than 25 goals.  Lukas Kott out of the midfield and Christian Cisneros on attack led the way. Kyle Brown will be tested at the faceoff circle and Michael Fess in goal will be called on in this one. Again, should be a lot of fun to see how this plays out. Get to the games! You won’t regret it . . .      

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