FLN Weekly High School Media Poll (Well, This Writer Anyhow!)
Written by Lee Roggenburg on . Posted in Uncategorized.
Hot Potato.
A children’s game played with a ball or similar item similar to musical chairs. The idea of the game is that you gather in a circle and toss the item around and when the music stops or the leader calls out the person with the item in their possession is eliminated.
Kind of like last week’s game results.
The Top 4 remain unchanged. Jupiter was off, LHP played two MIAA teams very well and St. Thomas came to town for a Saturday matinee. Barron Collier overcame Oxbridge and Ponte Vedra easily handled Creekside in their only game.
And then there was EVERYONE ELSE. By the way, thanks to reader John Prizer for texting me during the week after my last Top 10 that the Top 4 were from different quadrants in the brackets and could be a Final Four . . . thanks John!
Boca Raton? Two one-goal road losses.
Saint Andrews? Handled pretty easily by their MIAA opponents; they were never really in either game.
Pope John Paul? Lost at home to a South Fork team with 4 losses.
Lake Brantley? Sorry, but now that the complete story is out how do I handle them? For now I will not rank them. If the FHSAA is letting them play in the tournament they can prove it on the field, but not with my support for now.
Benjamin? Went north to play the MIAA and fared as well as Saint Andrew’s.
As my ancestors would say . . . OYY!!
So, for the first time I will change the format and group the teams into pods, and discuss the pods, and hopefully the games this week will start to clarify the polling better because right now there is no way I can give a full Top 10 that would make sense to the readers.
Oh, and one other note since if I were going to do a Top 10 pick I do have a trendy thought:
Right now, a team not yet rated, Melbourne Central Catholic, is impressing the “h e double hockey sticks” out of me (they are a Catholic school after all but using heck just isn’t strong enough for me). They just manhandled a darn-good Wellington program 16-4, have run the table since an opening game loss to a resurgent Vero, and are lying in wait for their next three games, on the road to Winter Park (which knocked off previously ranked Lake Mary Friday), on the road to Oviedo, which is an almost sneaky 7-2 and the huge home match-up when Ponte Vedra comes calling on April 2nd. Should they sweep those three games we might be looking at an epic match-up in the playoffs against Jupiter, in the SECOND ROUND.
If I really were ballsy I might rank them #5 or 6 this week. But they still need to beat a big boy before I can do that. Like a Ponte Vedra. Maybe Ernie and I need to make a road trip . . . even if it’s a Tuesday.
I’ll be really effective at work Wednesday if I do . . .
So, let’s utilize a modified Top 10 for this week, ending March 24th:
#1 – Jupiter
#2 – Lake Highland Prep
#3 – Barron Collier
#4 – Ponte Vedra
#5 – Those who are potential contenders to win it all
#6 – Teams that could cause noise by getting hot at the right time but not necessarily be in #5
#7 – Teams that are having an excellent season but probably are not ready for the prime time
Then I can take a page from an the great Gordie Howe, who was given credit for a famous quote (although I can’t seem to find it on Google). Gordie went up to a referee and told him he was the second-best referee in the NHL. The referee, thinking what a great compliment that was, asked Gordie who was #1. Gordie replied that everyone else was tied for first.
Ba-boom.
So for this week only, every school not named in the Top 7 can assume they are tied for 8th in the state . . .
Okay, we’ve covered the Top 4 above so let’s look beyond them.
#5 – Those outside the Top 4 who are potential contenders to win it all:
Saint Andrew’s – pretty surreal that this is where they are given the absolute lock on the Top 1 or 2 they’ve been since pretty much the First World War. What helps them? Tough schedule with a couple of quality wins. What is hurting them? Lost four of their last seven games and the schedule only has four games left before the playoffs begin. And that includes road games with LHP and Lake Mary, which might very well tell me if they should really be in #6. Can they get it together at the right time?
Boca Raton – still a darn good body of work. What hurts them? In their last three games all 3 were one-goal decisions and they are 1-2, against 3 quality teams. What helps them? The same thing. 7-2 on the year and two one-goal road losses means they are still darn good. The schedule still includes some tough challenges (7 games left) so they have the time to right themselves. Running the table puts then right back in the Top 5. Still a very dangerous team going forward.
And one of those two gets eliminated in District . . .
Wild Cards for #5
St. Thomas Aquinas – this call is solely based on whether they get mostly healthy by the end of the season. 6 wins to start the season followed by 5 straight losses after injuries piled up and the schedule turned brutal. But if they had their full team this would be a scary group. So if they get healthy on attack look out for a late year bounce.
Lake Brantley – how do they respond going forward? Two of the most talented kids in the state. Will the off-the-field issue hurt them or will it become a rallying cry? You can only know that after the fact. Four of the last five games are legitimate and will provide some window. If they get it together a second round match-up with LHP looms. We shall all see.
Melbourne Central Catholic – see above. If they beat Ponte Vedra they belong in the Top 10.
#6 – Teams that could cause noise by getting hot at the right time but not in #5
Benjamin – this is a team that looks to me to just be a little bit below the rest of the #5 teams. Right now their only quality win was over STA, at home in OT and now the Hagerty loss looks worse than early in the season. In their favor they certainly have played a difficult schedule with some more tough games coming up but unless they can win a number of those games it looks like they will just fall short of being a contender. On top of that, they can’t even make the playoff bracket unless they are able to replicate last year’s win over Jupiter, but this time in district, not in the first round.
Columbus Catholic – a very good record but no quality wins. I can overlook the one loss as an aberration but their only quality opponents have not been played yet so this record is right now hard to evaluate. This team did get to the Final 8 last year so we’ll just have to wait for the tougher games to be played to see if they either move up or move down.
Lake Mary – also similar to Benjamin in that they just don’t have a top quality win yet and they still have two chances to get one so we will see at that point. Based on what I saw against Jupiter it looks like LM is just not quite there depth-wise. They also have to get past Seminole in their District to make the brackets but if they accomplish that they do have a shot at playing PV in the round of 16. The team would need to be healthy and get hot at the right time to make it to Bradenton.
Pope John Paul II – another inconsistent team with plenty of talent. Which team shows up, the one that lost convincingly to SA or the one that beat Boca Raton? Still has 8 games left to get it together. Biggest problem? They would have to find a way to win the best district in the state. Just to get the chance to make the brackets.
Vero Beach – so similar to PJP. Good wins and a few hiccups. Hard to tell if they have turned the corner with the big home game wins last week. Tomorrow’s game will really tell the story if the turnaround continues. A number of tough games left and the schedule did turn out in retrospect to be a lot harder than first thought. Biggest issues are a much tougher district to come out of than first thought and then a potential FIRST ROUND game against Jupiter in the playoffs.
#7 – Teams that are having an excellent season but probably are not ready for the prime time
Maclay – best win this season is over Winter Park on the road. Still has LHP coming up so they could move up to the #6 category if they run the table. Lost to both PV and Vero earlier.
Oviedo – a sneaky 7-2, scoring a lot of goals but against lesser competition. The next four games are against tough teams. They either play themselves up to #6 or out of consideration over the next two weeks.
Gulf Coast – one good road win at Tampa Jesuit and a lot of weaker wins. Milton (Ga.), Vero and Barron Collier to come. Will they rise to the occasion?
Seminole – notwithstanding the Lake Brantley upset is looks like it is still a year away for this program. LHP and MCC are still on the horizon but they need to get by Lake Mary just to make the brackets.
Oak Hall-Gainesville – another 8-1 team without a real quality win. Barron Collier and Maclay still on the schedule for them to make some noise. Will they play themselves up to #6?
Providence – another 8-1 team . . . see Gainesville. A trip to PV is the only chance to play themselves up to #6.
Jensen Beach – beat Vero and Spanish River the last two games. Could they be making a late-season push? Even if they do, it’s a pretty tough district to get out of. Maybe another year from really making noise with that coaching staff. Look out a few years down the line.
Bishop Moore – another sneaky record at 7-3 with 6 of 7, including a win over Seminole. Unfortunately they are in LHP’s district so it takes a heck of a performance to just make the brackets.
Oxbridge – 8-2 but no quality wins yet. Still will likely to get to the brackets with a good shot at advancing a round versus District 22. More likely a year or two away. Coach Stan Ross has them on the right track.
I just think everyone else is pretty much playing for just getting to the brackets and maybe winning a game at most.
Hopefully the games next week will add clarity and we can go back to a true Top 10!!