Lee’s Predictions For The Final Eight – And Please Get Out To The Games!
Written by Lee Roggenburg on . Posted in Uncategorized.
We are heading into the Final Eight and it is really a nice mix of teams and matchups! One item for local fans to note is that the Newsome-Lake Highland game has been moved to tonight from Saturday. That game is slated for 7:oopm at Newsome High School so if you are planning to attend that one take note of the change.
When you look at these eight teams there are so many fascinating storylines.
From the top:
Maclay has been building their program for a while and are the flagship program in the northwest part of the state. It is a school that was founded in 1968 and has about 1,000 students ranging from pre-K to 12th grade so the high school class size is on the small side and they compete in Class 2A for most sports. There is a new head coach this year in Tyler Hardy (http://fln.mattplu.com/maclay-announces-hiring-of-tyler-hardy-as-new-coach/) and his defense background has found its’ way into the approach the team is taking and a look at their season results show that the goals against has been cut down on as 18 times they held their opposition to 4 goals or less. They have had some high profile wins before this season but have never gotten to the Final Four. They have two high profile D-1 recruits in Stephen Chase, a Notre Dame commit and Teddy Transou, a Duke commit.
Lake Mary, Maclay’s opponent, comes off their stunning performance against Ponte Vedra, avenging a regular season loss. Lake Mary has nearly 2,900 students and was founded in 1981. Coach Garrick Robinson is a long-time fixture on the lacrosse scene in Florida, having spent many years at Gulliver Prep before moving north. In his fourth year he has gotten his program into their first Final Eight and will carry one of the mantles for the public schools. Coach Robinson’s team has found a nice balance of offense and defense and sports an All-American goaltender in Chandler Harrison and he is surrounded by a number of two-way players.
Newsome High School is the true newcomer to the party as they carry the hopes of the Tampa area’s growth in the sport. Established in 2003 and sporting 2400 students they are the newcomer in more ways than one. A one goal loss in last year’s first round whet the appetite for this year and their 17-0 record screams respect. Having to put up with the Hillsborough County edict of not traveling outside the area in the regular season makes them quite the mysterious foe. And that can cut both ways. Of course the matchup with Lake Highland is as much opportunity as mountain to climb and if ever there was a moment to roll out the old saying ‘measuring stick game’, this is it. Coach Eric Blackburn is in his fourth season at the helm and this is the biggest game in program history.
Lake Highland is basically the gold standard of Florida lacrosse right now. And now they play the role of the hunted after spending a number of years of hunting Saint Andrew’s. Another excellent season, albeit with a couple of early bumps in the road, have set them up for their traditional run to the finals. Founded in 1970 and having 2,500 students ranging from pre-K through 12th grade. Coach Chris Spaulding has built the program over time and now they basically enter the season as a favorite to get to the Final Four every year. A number of his players dot the Division One landscape and there are others on the roster that will elevate there after graduation. This is the first time they will face Newsome so there is something new to this game for them too.
Jupiter High School is a senior-dominated team that is looking to go back to the Final Four for the first time since their seniors were freshmen, when they fell to Saint Andrew’s. Jupiter is the oldest public school of the bunch, having opened in 1965. Coach Dan Loftus has been head coach since 2009 and has built arguably the best starting lineup in the state this season. The team is loaded with D-1 commits and this is the year they have been pointing to. A few hiccups, albeit against the toughest schedule in the state according to the computer rankings along with one big desire to avenge a one-goal loss to Saint Andrew’s (interestingly enough, in order to win the state title they might well have to avenge all THREE losses this season, as their losses were to SA, STA and LHP!). A strong defense and a well-oiled offense and an All-American goalie of their own will have the Warriors ready.
Saint Andrew’s is actually one of the better stories of the season. Following their shocking loss in District last year the Scots hired one of the biggest name coaches around in Tony Seaman, who has patiently built this team into a late-season juggernaut that has incorporated many of the offensive and defensive strategies Coach Seaman utilized in his full coaching career. Over the season the team incorporated many underclassmen into the lineup and the offense came together halfway through the season. The school opened in 1962, making it the second oldest school of this group and has 1,300 students on JK-12, making it the smallest school playing here (one fun fact is that the movie Paper Lion was filmed at the school in the 70’s). The team is very balanced as they have solid goaltending, one of the best faceoff specialists in the state, and a lot of offensive talent. Defensively their zone defense has become difficult to play against.
St. Thomas Aquinas is entering the Final Eight as the top team in the polls and has gone undefeated against a pretty good schedule, including wins over LHP and Jupiter. They have never gotten to the finals under Coach Terry Crowley and after going to the Final Four last year are looking to take those last two steps. St. Thomas Aquinas is the oldest school in this group, having been established in 1936 and has had a long history of athletic success, particularly on the gridiron. The team is filled with D-1 commits and the best team chemistry on offense and defense in their lacrosse history. There are many weapons on offense and they can both create their own scoring chances as well as play together. Goalie Michael Adler played at an All-American level this year even if he wasn’t voted it. A truly interesting storyline if STA can run the table.
Barron Collier is returning to it’s second straight Final Eight, having fallen to STA in overtime in last year’s version. Founded in 1976 the school’s Wiki entry claims Ray Finkle/Lois Einhorn of Ace Ventura fame as a graduate, truly a fun fact if any exists! Anyhow, Coach Trent Carter has built a solid program in Naples and the team comes into the game with a solid defense but has had some difficulty with scoring goals against the better defenses. Familiarity is not an issue as this will be the FOURTH game between these two schools in the last two seasons. A difficult challenge awaits.
Lee’s Final Eight Predictions
My pre-season Final’s prediction has already been blown up, but to remind readers it was LHP, Ponte Vedra, SA and Barron Collier, with BC over PV in the finals . . . well, wait ‘til next year!
Maclay Hosting Lake Mary
I really hate to make predictions when I haven’t seen a team play but at least I’ve seen six of the eight. Maclay being one of the two. But I am going to go with Lake Mary to win this in a close 9-7 final score. Maclay has not beaten the top teams on their schedule and Lake Mary’s win over Ponte Vedra is well beyond what Maclay has done this year. Maclay’s defense will keep it close and Stephen Chase will provide enough offense but in the end Lake Mary’s tougher schedule will carry the day for them.
Newsome Hosting Lake Highland Prep
I expect Newsome to come out on a high and hang with LHP in the first half but the Highlander’s quality and the toughness of the schedule will lead to LHP pulling away for a comfortable win, maybe 16-7 in the end. Newsome will gain the respect of the Florida lacrosse scene for their performance but you just don’t win these types of games the first go-around.
Saint Andrew’s Hosting Jupiter
A finals quality game with very little to decide between the two of them. In the pre-season I wrote/stated on the podcast that I felt SA’s offense would get it together late in the season and they would find their way to Bradenton. After watching these two teams a number of times, including against each other, I think this one comes down right to the wire as both offenses light it up more than expected. Overtime might well decide this and if it does the senior leadership of Jupiter will pull this one out. At the risk of the wrath of the local supporters I will choose Jupiter 14-13 in this one. And I will wear my body armor tomorrow just in case . . .
St. Thomas Aquinas Hosting Barron Collier
The second of my pre-season final choices goes down to defeat in the face of the juggernaut that STA has become as STA cruises to a 14-5 win, as BC’s defense will have to spend far too much time with the ball in their end. This is a special year for STA and I don’t see anything changing in this game.
Well . . . once again I get a chance to look foolish! But, as always, I plead with the fans out there . . . get out to the games tonight! You won’t regret it!