(photo from the Naples Daily News – let me know who to credit!)

First, let me explain how I came to these conclusions since there are some assumptions we had to make, given how little the FHSAA gave out:

I started with the 4/5/22 FHSAA rankings, and since no one in Gainesville would confirm or deny that the games of 4/4 were included, I will go with what Tampa Lax Report said and make 4/5 the starting point for including results.

According to some of what was probable, the District playoff games carried a little more weight than a regular season game. The issue of a head to head win was never confirmed, so I will count the head to head in the playoff as more important.

Won-Loss record certainly seemed to be more important than first thought and strength of schedule less important, so I carried that thinking over too.

There are a few games left today due to weather and a brush fire, so they are inclusive of both schools when projecting positions/slots.

We are going to do one of these articles for each region – 16 in total.

I have no reason to think geography will be part of the selection process, like it is in the NCAA at times. If a District rematch is indicated in the first round, I am assuming it will be played. There is no indication that the FHSAA will avoid first round rematches at this time.

Margin of victory does not seem important, and a forfeit is not counted (this is problematic if won-loss is so important).

Okay, if I think of something else, I’ll add it!

Region 3 – Girls 1A

Out-of-Door’s one-goal win over St. Stephen’s locked in them at #1 and SSE at #5, and it’s been pretty much that likelihood all year. Naples really played well this year and comfortably earned the #2 seed, although the spread between them and St. Petersburg Catholic is very close, making St. Pete the #3 seed.

Berkeley Prep pulled away in the second half against Academy of Holy Names to grab the #4 seed and will face SSE in what is shaping up to be a terrific region bracket. Holy Names slots into the 6 seed and then it gets very interesting:

Robinson – #31 – 0-2 record after 4/4, lost in the semifinals

Barron Collier – #33 – 2-1 record and lost a final

Lely – #34 – 3-2 record and lost a final

Community School – #36 – 4-1 record and lost a final to Naples and beat Berkeley Prep late in the season

Analysis:

If records mean what we think, I believe that Robinson is out of the bracket with their season-ending run. I’ve been following Community School all season as they battled back from a monster early schedule, and they might have done enough with the last 5 games to sneak in.

Lely is the only one of the three with BC and Community that lost two games.

My suspicion is that BC and Community are in at 7 and 8.

*****

So, this is how it looks:

#1 Out-of-Door vs #8 Community School

#2 Naples vs #7 Barron Collier

#3 St. Petersburg Catholic vs #6 Holy Names

#4 Berkeley Prep vs #5 St. Stephen’s