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Florida Pre-Season Top 10 and Championship Game Prediction

Written by Lee Roggenburg on . Posted in .
  Senior Writer Lee Roggenburg is out with his first annual preseason Top 10 for Florida High School teams. In keeping with the fine new legal tradition of modern society it should be noted the opinions expressed are solely of the author and not the senior management, board of directors, general ledger staff, and all other associated FLN owners and employees. So all digs, barbs, outright annoyances and curt, snarky remarks need to be directed at Lee personally, not the site. Lee’s direct cell phone number is not listed specifically for this purpose but he can be reached at lee@floridalacrossenews.com. We only ask that physical threats and comments on his manhood directed at Lee be limited to 2 per day as that is all his public defender can handle. Lee, as always, is a big believer in pacifism when it personally impacts him.   Welcome to another season of high school lacrosse in one of the fastest growing areas for this great sport! For those of you who didn’t listen to the podcast posted on our site (shame on those of you who didn’t; please do so since I am paid piecemeal per broadcast listened!) here are my preseason predictions for Top 10 and the state championship prediction. Obviously in a state so vast (I believe we now have over 200 high school men’s teams playing in the state, which is mindboggling if you just woke up from a 5-year deep sleep) I can’t see everyone play and follow all the player growth over the summer, nor keep up with all the coaching changes, transfers, etc., but SOMEONE has to give this a shot, and since I have the thickest skin (some would call it densest skull) it was determined through an obviously fixed coin flip that I would take the first shot at what will be an annual attempt going forward.   So, away we go . . . #1A – Jupiter #1B – Lake Highland Prep #3 – Vero Beach #4 – St. Andrew’s #5 – Ponte Vedra #6 – Lake Brantley #7 – St. Thomas Aquinas #8 – Benjamin #9 – Barron Collier #10 – Hagerty Other schools I see having good seasons: Columbus Catholic Lake Mary Maclay Boca Raton Pope John Paul Programs on the Rise: Wellington Martin County Oak Hall – Gainesville Pine Crest Bolles Oxbridge Academy   Championship Game Prediction – Jupiter beats Lake Brantley in the final, with Lake Brantley getting by Ponte Vedra in the semifinals and Jupiter knocking off the St. Thomas/Barron Collier survivor (too close to call right now) on their side of the bracket. (Editor’s note:  I did not pick up on the bracket change down south.  Last year Barron Collier played Benjamin in the round of 8 but now BC would come out of the bottom of the bracket so a projected Jupiter-SA game would be in the quarters, not the semis. – LR.  Thank you for those who contacted us to point this out.)   A few thoughts before we start on this. The FHSAA changed some districts and one change in particular will really have an impact on these predictions. Benjamin and Jupiter have been placed in the SAME district, so one of my Top 8 teams will not even make it out of district. Then the survivor’s likely first round match-up will be Vero Beach. So potentially two of my Top 3 schools meet in a FIRST ROUND game. All I can say is WOW . . . In a state this big one other thing I can say is that SOMEONE will come out of nowhere to have a great season and SOMEONE will completely make me look foolish. Such is the nature of predictions. But the biggest thought I have is how great it is the competitiveness that this state will exhibit? No one will run away with championship. NO ONE.   Why the Top 10 in this order? Of all the top teams from last year Jupiter returns the most talent. Top goalie in Viper Scheele, 2 major long pole studs in Conner Alexander and Braylon Sampson, and two experienced, high-scoring attackmen in Zach Crotty and Jesse Foertmeyer. Some work in progress at midfield, led by Peter Cox. And a coaching staff that has been in place long enough to fully bring their style and culture to the program. I am usually old school when it comes to giving the defending champions their due, but I just can’t overlook the sheer quality of the seniors that LHP graduated. There is still a lot in the cupboard with Adam Sawicki in net, Max Parker in the faceoff circle and a number of returning middies but the offense lost plenty and losing a Devon Lewis and Casey Irish hurts no matter who replaces them. 2013 0402 LHP V vs CH 3699_opt Vero Beach was an overtime goal away from a likely pairing with St. Andrew’s in last year’s semifinals and returns most of their top players. They are built from the defense out and as long as they can put up enough goals they will be a threat to go all the way. It would not surprise me that the winner of the Vero first round match, whether Jupiter or Benjamin, goes on to win the whole tournament. St. Andrew’s is frankly a wild card for me in this spot. They arguably lost even more top talent than LHP did and there are question marks in whether the next wave of players can fill in, particularly early in the season since the newcomers did not play major minutes last season. I expect them to improve as the season goes on but early games with Benjamin and Vero might leave SA with an unfamiliar record so early, and then a mid-season run of Jupiter, LHP and their annual step up to the MIAA schools Boy’s Latin and McDonogh will at least get the kids ready for a tournament run albeit with an unfamiliar record. The defense is deep but the offense will struggle to put up goals. Brandt Gulden looks to me to be the breakout player for the team this year. Ponte Vedra is always difficult for me to handicap since I don’t get to see them too often. Last year’s team was hurt in my opinion by a schedule that was not sufficiently difficult and it hurt them in the long run as I just didn’t think they were ready for the semifinals. In all fairness, PV does have a major handicap when it comes to scheduling a better season as the geographical location makes traveling to certain programs a more difficult logistical challenge. It might still be an issue this year but they do travel to Jupiter this year and the progression of Hagerty and some of the other central programs does help. I would have liked to see them play Vero this year as an additional test. PV lost two key components from last year in Dalton Lemaster and Ryan Applegate, both All-Americans and a transition phase will ensue. They do return some solid talent in Cody Legeza, RJ Garcia and Eric Applegate among others. This seems to be the proper place for them and I will be looking to see how their offense progresses as the year plays out. SAPCandBenjVeroSw161700_opt Lake Brantley is the most intriguing team for me this year. They started the season with 14 straight wins before losing in OT to PV, and two days later falling to LHP. They then lost in the playoffs to LHP 7-4. The schedule is similar in difficulty to PV with the difference being in that LB has back-loaded its’ schedule difficulty and that might be the difference in preparing for the tournament. Lake Brantley returns my pre-season Player of the Year in middie Tim Gehlbach, a North Carolina recruit and he is joined by Inside Lacrosse’s #3 rated rising sophomore Jared Bernhardt on attack. The latest Bernhardt comes prepared to break out in a big way and the combination of the two of them will make game-planning LB a challenge. This is the type of combination that can carry a team on a long run in a state tournament and this is why I’ve decided to make them my finalist. St. Thomas Aquinas sometimes signifies that old Russia saying, a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The last couple of seasons STA has looked both world beater and lost soul. Nothing better signifies that than last season’s performance. Which team was STA, the one that nearly approached perfection against Boca Raton in a 18-4 shellacking and took LHP down to the wire in a thrilling 12-11 matchup, or the one that completely forgot what got them there in the shocking 11-8 loss to Columbus Catholic in the Round of 16? This season STA returns a number of high end talent and will have no issue with scoring, led by returning All-American RJ Curtin and JP Crowley, both D1 commits and the return of Johns Hopkins bound Revin Koss from a season-ending injury last year. If the Raiders can keep the defense sound then the long awaited playoff run can be there. gehlbach Benjamin is a bit of a wild card for me too, in that of all the teams on this list I get the most feedback about the team being rated higher than this. Of all the final four teams last season Benjamin was the one I thought was the most limited offensively (which did show in the semifinal loss to SA) and they lose their top offensive talent from last year in Robert Jacobs. Andrew Packer is looked at to see if his stellar summer camp and showcase performance (which led to his committing to the University of Maryland) carries over to his sophomore year. He will be joined by a pair of seniors in McKenna Johnston and Ryan Sylvester. Returning All-American Jerry O’Connor and D1 goalie commit Anthony Cicio lead a strong defense. The key to me this year is whether Benjamin can get contributions from their bench as the team seems more ‘top-heavy’ to me. (Note: I was writing this review during the weekend and did not finish it until the Hagerty-Benjamin game finished in Jacksonville with Hagerty winning 9-8 in 3 OT’s). Barron Collier and Hagerty have a few things in common: I have not seen either play in person yet; both teams had interesting seasons last year and I see good long term progress in both programs. Last year Barron Collier lost four games, with 3 of them very respectable losses to Jupiter, STA and Benjamin in the Final 8 playoff round. What they didn’t have was a signature win. They look to change that this year with a beefed up schedule that includes STA, Jupiter, Vero Beach, Oak Hall-Gainesville and Oxbridge Academy. To take the next step they need to win a couple of those games. Hagerty won 17 games last season, with key wins over Maclay and Tampa Jesuit, and played two very competitive games with LHP. 2014 sees Benjamin (see above) and Jupiter added to the schedule and that can only help down the line. And one last prediction – in 2018 don’t be surprised if I am making the case for North Broward Prep, Oxbridge Academy and American Heritage–Delray as possible Top 10 candidates. Stay tuned and see . . .

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