First, let me explain how I came to these conclusions since there are some assumptions we had to make, given how little the FHSAA gave out:

I started with the 4/5/22 FHSAA rankings, and since no one in Gainesville would confirm or deny that the games of 4/4 were included, I will go with what Tampa Lax Report said and make 4/5 the starting point for including results.

According to some of what was probable, the District playoff games carried a little more weight than a regular season game. The issue of a head to head win was never confirmed, so I will count the head to head in the playoff as more important.

Won-Loss record certainly seemed to be more important than first thought and strength of schedule less important, so I carried that thinking over too.

There are a few games left today due to weather and a brush fire, so they are inclusive of both schools when projecting positions/slots.

We are going to do one of these articles for each region – 16 in total.

I have no reason to think geography will be part of the selection process, like it is in the NCAA at times. If a District rematch is indicated in the first round, I am assuming it will be played. There is no indication that the FHSAA will avoid first round rematches at this time.

Margin of victory does not seem important, and a forfeit is not counted (this is problematic if won-loss is so important).

Okay, if I think of something else, I’ll add it!

Region 1 – Boys 2A

All season long it’s been Ponte Vedra, Lake Mary and Creekside, with Nease in a supporting role. The other teams have been dueling back and forth over the season, and we are seeing a new entrant in the Panhandle.

As has been the case since the first week, the top 3 seeds were going to be PV, LM and Creekside, and #5 would be Nease. LM took over the top for a week, but didn’t take the prosperity well for one game, so we are now locked in with PV at #1, LM at #2 and Creekside at #3 to go with Nease at #5.

Niceville earned the #4 seed by not being so nice to District 1; welcome to the Dance!

And then came the logjam . . .

Flagler Palm Coast – #24 – 2-2 since 4/4, lost in the final

Bartram Trail – #26 – 1-2 record, lost in the semifinal

Forest – #27 – 3-1 record, lost in the final

Oviedo – #28 – 3-1 record, lost in the final

Buchholz #36, Fleming Island #38 and Chiles #39 needed to win their district to gain the bracket

Analysis:

The race for #6-8 is down to Flagler, Forest and Oviedo, as Bartram’s two losses and a semifinal loss should take them out of the bracket. Since Forest and Oviedo have the same exact profile here, and Forest is one slot ahead to start, that should put Forest above Oviedo.

Flagler has the 2-2 record but was 3 spots above Forest to start.

This is TOUGH.

My first impression is that the extra loss will hurt Flagler enough to put Forest ahead of them, but this is really cutting it close. Let’s go with Forest at #6 and Flagler at #7, with Oviedo at #8, but any ranking of those three won’t be a surprise.

*****

So, this is how it looks:

#1 Ponte Vedra vs #8 Oviedo

#2 Lake Mary vs #7 Flagler Palm Coast

#3 Creekside vs #6 Forest

#4 Niceville vs #5 Nease